voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2015-3-87-108voprecotest-62Research ArticleИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКАINVESTMENT POLICYЕвразийский экономический союз: перспективы развитияи возможные препятствияEurasian Economic union: Prospects and challenges for DevelopmentКнобельА. Ю.KnobelA.

к. э. н., завлабораторией международной торговли Института экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Москва); директор Центра исследований международной торговли РАНХиГС (Москва)

knobel@iep.ruИнститута экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Москва); РАНХиГС (Москва)РоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation2015200320150387108Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20152015Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/62

В работе анализируются перспективы и проблемы развития Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС). Рассмотрены вопросы интеграции внутри ЕАЭС, а также его взаимодействие с другими странами СНГ и дальнего зарубежья. Показано, что основная проблема интеграции внутри ЕАЭС - доминирование перераспределительного мотива над производительным. Оценены масштабы нефтегазового трансферта от России к партнерам по ЕАЭС и влияние налогового маневра на его величину. Показано, что создание механизма перераспределения выигрыша внутри ЕАЭС будет способствовать реализации положительного экономического эффекта от заключения соглашений о свободной торговле со странами дальнего зарубежья. Оценены риски для ЕАЭС в связи с введением Россией в одностороннем порядке запрета на импорт продовольствия из стран санкционного списка и в связи с возможным установлением пошлин в торговле с Украиной.

The paper is devoted to the analysis of development prospects and problems of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. It considers integration problems inside EAEU, interactions of EAEU with other CIS countries and with countries from the rest of the world. The paper shows that the major integration challenge inside EAEU is the domination of the redistributive motive over the creative one. It estimates the value of the oil and gas transfer from Russia to other EAEU members and the influence of the Russian tax maneuver on this transfer. The paper shows the need in redistribution mechanism inside EAEU as a necessary condition for getting the potential positive economic effects of free trade with other countries. It also assesses the risks for EAEU due to Russian embargo for food imports from countries of the sanctions list and possible application of tariff in the trade with Ukraine.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.