voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2014-2-68-87voprecotest-615Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYВозможные экономические последствия торгового соглашения между Таможенным и Европейским союзамиPossible Economic Effects of CU—EU Trade AgreementКнобельА. Ю.KnobelA.

завлабораторией международной торговли Института экономической политики имени Е.  Т.  Гайдара, директор Центра исследований международной торговли Российской академии народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ (РАНХиГС) (Москва)

knobel@iep.ruЧокаевБ. В.ChokaevB.

замдиректора Центра исследований международной торговли РАНХиГС

chokaev@iep.ruИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ (РАНХиГС) (Москва)РоссияGaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia)Russian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ (РАНХиГС) (Москва)РоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation201420022014026887Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20142014Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/615

В работе исследуются возможные экономические последствия соглашения о свободной торговле, подразумевающего взаимное обнуление импортных тарифов на товары в торговле между Таможенным и Европейским союзами. Анализ проводится с помощью модели общего равновесия CGE Globe v1. Оценен эффект, который может оказать создание зоны свободной торговли на экономики стран-участниц, на уровне как всей экономики, так и отдельных отраслей. Проведен анализ чувствительности результатов к изменению параметров модели. Показано, что и в относительном, и в абсолютном выражении Россия потенциально от такого соглашения выигрывает больше, чем ЕС. Совокупный выигрыш ТС строго положительный, однако выгоды и издержки распределяются среди его членов неравномерно.

This paper investigates the possible economic effects of free trade agreement (FTA), implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade between the Customs Union and the EU. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE Globe v1 model. We estimate the impact of FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially benefits from the agreement more than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.