voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-6voprecotest-5994Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОТРАСЛЕВЫХ РЫНКОВINDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONЗакрытые по разным причинам: что показывает анализ выживаемости МСП на больших данных?Closed for different reasons: What does survival analysis of SMEs on big data show?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0091-5388КазунА. П.KazunA. P.

Казун Антон Павлович - к. соц. н., директор Института анализа предприятий и рынков НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Anton P. Kazun

Moscow

kazun.anton@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияAuthor affiliation: HSE UniversityRussian Federation20260606202606530Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5994

Проанализированы факторы выживаемости малого и среднего предпринимательства в России на данных о 5,22 млн юридических лиц на основании реестра МСП, финансовой отчетности RFSD и сведений ЕГРЮЛ о собственности и управлении. Прекращение деятельности разделено на четыре типа: реорганизация, вероятное банкротство, исключение ФНС и прочая ликвидация. Модели Кокса дают два результата. Во-первых, кажущееся преимущество малых и средних фирм над микропредприятиями исчезает, меняется знак при контроле на финансы и структуру собственности: значимы организационные характеристики, а не размер. Во-вторых, сценарии закрытия объясняются разными факторами: так, банкротство связано прежде всего с финансовыми результатами, а реорганизация — с принадлежностью к корпоративной группе. Эффект ООО также меняет знак при учете корпоративного управления.

This paper examines the survival determinants of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Russia, drawing on data covering 5.22 million legal entities that combine the Federal Tax Service’s SME register, the Russian Financial Statements Database (RFSD), and the Unified State Register of Legal Entities (EGRUL) records on ownership and governance. We distinguish four modes of discontinuation: reorganization, probable bankruptcy, removal from the register, and other forms of liquidation. Cox proportional hazards models yield two principal findings. First, the apparent survival advantage of small and mediumsized firms relative to micro-enterprises vanishes — and indeed reverses — once financial performance and ownership structure are controlled for, indicating that what is commonly attributed to size in fact reflects specific organizational characteristics. Second, the four exit scenarios are driven by substantively different factors: bankruptcy is primarily associated with financial performance (ROA), whereas reorganization is linked to affiliation with a corporate group. The effect of the limited liability company (OOO) legal form likewise changes sign once corporate governance variables are included in the specification.

малое и среднее предпринимательствовыживаемость фирмконкурирующие рискимодель пропорциональных рисков Коксакорпоративное управлениеsmall and medium-sized enterprisesfirm survivalcompeting risksCox proportional hazards modelcorporate governanceRussiaРабота выполнена в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ (№ HSE-BR-2025-033)The article was prepared within the framework of the HSE University Basic Research Program (No. HSE-BR-2025-033)ReferencesБаринова В. А., Земцов С. П., Царева Ю. В. (2018). Предпринимательство и институты: есть ли связь на региональном уровне в России? // Вопросы экономики. № 6. С. 92—116. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-6-92-116Barinova V. A., Zemtsov S. P., Tsareva Y. V. (2018). Entrepreneurship and institutions: Does the relationship exist at the regional level in Russia? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, pp. 92—116. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-6-92-116Голикова В. В., Муковнин С. К., Казун А. П., Ершова Н. В. (2025). Дефицит квалифицированных рабочих в обрабатывающей промышленности: следствие неэффективности фирм или препятствие для роста эффективных? // Вопросы экономики. № 2. С. 39—65. https://doi.org/10.32609/00428736-2025-2-39-65Golikova V. V., Mukovnin S. K., Kazun A. P., Ershova N. V. (2025). Shortage of skilled workforce in manufacturing: A consequence of firms ineffectiveness or an obstacle for the growth of effective firms? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 39—65. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/00428736-2025-2-39-65Земцов С. П., Смелов Ю. А. (2018). Факторы регионального развития в России: география, человеческий капитал или политика регионов // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. № 4. С. 84—108. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-4Zemtsov S. P., Smelov Y. A. (2018). Factors of regional development in Russia: Geography, human capital or regional policies. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 4, pp. 84—108. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2018-40-4-4Казун А. П. (2025). С командой и без долгов: факторы выживаемости малого бизнеса в России в 2021—2023 гг. // Вопросы экономики. № 5. С. 83—110. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-83-110Kazun A. P. (2025). With a team and without debt: Factors affecting small business survival in Russia, 2021—2023. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 83—110. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-83-110Образцова О. И., Чепуренко А. Ю. (2020). Предпринимательская активность в России и ее межрегиональные различия // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. № 2. С. 198—210. https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-46-2-12Obraztsova O. I., Chepurenko A. Y. (2020). Entrepreneurial activity in Russia and its cross-regional differences. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 2, pp. 198—210. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-46-2-12Симачев Ю. В., Яковлев А. А., Голикова В. В., Городный Н. А., Кузнецов Б. В., Кузык М. Г., Федюнина А. А. (2023). Российские промышленные компании в условиях «второй волны» санкционных ограничений: стратегии реагирования // Вопросы экономики. № 12. С. 5—30. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-5-30Simachev Y. V., Yakovlev A. A., Golikova V. V., Gorodny N. A., Kuznetsov B. V., Kuzyk M. G., Fedyunina A. A. (2023). Russian industrial companies under the “second wave” of sanctions: Response strategies. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 5—30. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-5-30Acemoglu D., Robinson J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. New York: Crown Publishers.Acemoglu D., Robinson J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. New York: Crown Publishers.Aidis R., Adachi Y. (2007). Russia: Firm entry and survival barriers. Economic Systems, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 391—411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2007.08.003Aidis R., Adachi Y. (2007). Russia: Firm entry and survival barriers. Economic Systems, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 391—411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2007.08.003Altman E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 589—609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.xAltman E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 589—609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.xAngrist J. D., Pischke J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press.Angrist J. D., Pischke J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press.Audretsch D. B., Mahmood T. (1995). New firm survival: New results using a hazard function. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 1, pp. 97—103. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109995Audretsch D. B., Mahmood T. (1995). New firm survival: New results using a hazard function. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 1, pp. 97—103. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109995Balcaen S., Manigart S., Buyze J., Ooghe H. (2012). Firm exit after distress: Differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A. Small Business Economics, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 949—975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-011-9342-7Balcaen S., Manigart S., Buyze J., Ooghe H. (2012). Firm exit after distress: Differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A. Small Business Economics, Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. 949—975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-011-9342-7Baumöhl E., Iwasaki I., Kocenda E. (2019). Institutions and determinants of firm survival in European emerging markets. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 58, pp. 431—453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.05.008Baumöhl E., Iwasaki I., Kocenda E. (2019). Institutions and determinants of firm survival in European emerging markets. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 58, pp. 431—453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.05.008Bondarkov S., Ledenev V., Skougarevskiy D. (2025). Russian financial statements database: A firm-level collection of the universe of financial statements. Scientific Data, Vol. 12, article 995. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05150-1Bondarkov S., Ledenev V., Skougarevskiy D. (2025). Russian financial statements database: A firm-level collection of the universe of financial statements. Scientific Data, Vol. 12, article 995. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05150-1Caves R. E. (1998). Industrial organization and new findings on the turnover and mobility of firms. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 1947—1982.Caves R. E. (1998). Industrial organization and new findings on the turnover and mobility of firms. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 1947—1982.Cefis E., Bettinelli C., Coad A., Marsili O. (2022). Understanding firm exit: A systematic literature review. Small Business Economics, Vol. 59, No. 2, pp. 423—446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-021-00480-xCefis E., Bettinelli C., Coad A., Marsili O. (2022). Understanding firm exit: A systematic literature review. Small Business Economics, Vol. 59, No. 2, pp. 423—446. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-021-00480-xCefis E., Marsili O. (2006). Survivor: The role of innovation in firms’ survival. Research Policy, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 626—641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2006.02.006Cefis E., Marsili O. (2006). Survivor: The role of innovation in firms’ survival. Research Policy, Vol. 35, No. 5, pp. 626—641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2006.02.006Cox D. R. (1972). Regression models and life tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 187—220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.xCox D. R. (1972). Regression models and life tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 187—220. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1972.tb00899.xDeTienne D. R. (2010). Entrepreneurial exit as a critical component of the entrepreneurial process: Theoretical development. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 203—215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.05.004DeTienne D. R. (2010). Entrepreneurial exit as a critical component of the entrepreneurial process: Theoretical development. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 203—215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.05.004DeTienne D. R., McKelvie A., Chandler G. N. (2015). Making sense of entrepreneurial exit strategies: A typology and test. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 255—272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2014.07.007DeTienne D. R., McKelvie A., Chandler G. N. (2015). Making sense of entrepreneurial exit strategies: A typology and test. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 255—272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2014.07.007Esteve-Pérez S., Sanchis-Llopis A., Sanchis-Llopis J. A. (2004). The determinants of survival of Spanish manufacturing firms. Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 25, pp. 251—273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-004-1972-3Esteve-Pérez S., Sanchis-Llopis A., Sanchis-Llopis J. A. (2004). The determinants of survival of Spanish manufacturing firms. Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 25, pp. 251—273. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-004-1972-3Esteve-Pérez S., Sanchis-Llopis A., Sanchis-Llopis J. A. (2010). A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit. Empirical Economics, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 281—304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-009-0266-xEsteve-Pérez S., Sanchis-Llopis A., Sanchis-Llopis J. A. (2010). A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit. Empirical Economics, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 281—304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-009-0266-xFine J. P., Gray R. J. (1999). A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, No. 446, pp. 496—509. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474144Fine J. P., Gray R. J. (1999). A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 94, No. 446, pp. 496—509. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474144Geroski P. A. (1995). What do we know about entry? International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol. 13, pp. 421—440. https://doi.org/10.1016/01677187(95)00498-XGeroski P. A. (1995). What do we know about entry? International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol. 13, pp. 421—440. https://doi.org/10.1016/01677187(95)00498-XGiovannetti G., Ricchiuti G., Velucchi M. (2011). Size, innovation and internationalization: A survival analysis of Italian firms. Applied Economics, Vol. 43, No. 12, pp. 1511—1520. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840802600566Giovannetti G., Ricchiuti G., Velucchi M. (2011). Size, innovation and internationalization: A survival analysis of Italian firms. Applied Economics, Vol. 43, No. 12, pp. 1511—1520. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840802600566Hannan M. T., Freeman J. (1989). Organizational ecology. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674038288Hannan M. T., Freeman J. (1989). Organizational ecology. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674038288Harhoff D., Stahl K., Woywode M. (1998). Legal form, growth and exit of West German firms — empirical results for manufacturing, construction, trade and service industries. Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 453—488. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6451.00083Harhoff D., Stahl K., Woywode M. (1998). Legal form, growth and exit of West German firms — empirical results for manufacturing, construction, trade and service industries. Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 453—488. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6451.00083Headd B. (2003). Redefining business success: Distinguishing between closure and failure. Small Business Economics, Vol. 21, pp. 51—61. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024433630958Headd B. (2003). Redefining business success: Distinguishing between closure and failure. Small Business Economics, Vol. 21, pp. 51—61. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024433630958Helmers C., Rogers M. (2010). Innovation and the survival of new firms in the UK. Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 227—248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-010-9247-7Helmers C., Rogers M. (2010). Innovation and the survival of new firms in the UK. Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 227—248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-010-9247-7Iwasaki I. (2014). Global financial crisis, corporate governance, and firm survival: The Russian experience. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 178—211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.03.015Iwasaki I. (2014). Global financial crisis, corporate governance, and firm survival: The Russian experience. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 178—211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2013.03.015Iwasaki I., Adachi Y. (2024). Legal weakness, investment risks, and distressed acquisitions: Evidence from Russian regions. Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 1—69. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-022-00203-5Iwasaki I., Adachi Y. (2024). Legal weakness, investment risks, and distressed acquisitions: Evidence from Russian regions. Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 1—69. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-022-00203-5Iwasaki I., Kim B. (2020). Legal forms, organizational architecture, and firm failure: A large survival analysis of Russian corporations. European Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 227—275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-020-09644-8Iwasaki I., Kim B. (2020). Legal forms, organizational architecture, and firm failure: A large survival analysis of Russian corporations. European Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 227—275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-020-09644-8Jovanovic B. (1982). Selection and the evolution of industry. Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 649—670. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912606Jovanovic B. (1982). Selection and the evolution of industry. Econometrica, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 649—670. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912606Kato M., Onishi K., Honjo Y. (2022). Does patenting always help new firm survival? Understanding heterogeneity among exit routes. Small Business Economics, Vol. 59, pp. 449—475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-021-00481-wKato M., Onishi K., Honjo Y. (2022). Does patenting always help new firm survival? Understanding heterogeneity among exit routes. Small Business Economics, Vol. 59, pp. 449—475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-021-00481-wKazun A., Libman A., Yakovlev A. (2025). Expectations matter: Strategies of small businesses under economic sanctions in Russia. Eurasian Geography and Economics, December 3. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2025.2594407Kazun A., Libman A., Yakovlev A. (2025). Expectations matter: Strategies of small businesses under economic sanctions in Russia. Eurasian Geography and Economics, December 3. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2025.2594407Lunn M., McNeil D. (1995). Applying Cox regression to competing risks. Biometrics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 524—532. https://doi.org/10.2307/2532940Lunn M., McNeil D. (1995). Applying Cox regression to competing risks. Biometrics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 524—532. https://doi.org/10.2307/2532940Manjón-Antolin M. C., Arauzo-Carod J. M. (2008). Firm survival: Methods and evidence. Empirica, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 1—24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-007-9048-xManjón-Antolin M. C., Arauzo-Carod J. M. (2008). Firm survival: Methods and evidence. Empirica, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 1—24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-007-9048-xRajan R. G., Zingales L. (1998). Financial dependence and growth. American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559—586.Rajan R. G., Zingales L. (1998). Financial dependence and growth. American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559—586.Rochlitz M., Kazun A., Yakovlev A. A. (2020). Property rights in Russia after 2009: From business capture to centralized corruption? Post­Soviet Affairs, Vol. 36, No. 5—6, pp. 434—450. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2020.1786777Rochlitz M., Kazun A., Yakovlev A. A. (2020). Property rights in Russia after 2009: From business capture to centralized corruption? Post­Soviet Affairs, Vol. 36, No. 5—6, pp. 434—450. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2020.1786777Shumway T. (2001). Forecasting bankruptcy more accurately: A simple hazard model. Journal of Business, Vol. 74, No. 1, pp. 101—124. https://doi.org/10.1086/209665Shumway T. (2001). Forecasting bankruptcy more accurately: A simple hazard model. Journal of Business, Vol. 74, No. 1, pp. 101—124. https://doi.org/10.1086/209665Stinchcombe A. L. (1965). Social structure and organizations. In: J. G. March (ed.). Handbook of organizations. Chicago: Rand McNally, pp. 142—193.Stinchcombe A. L. (1965). Social structure and organizations. In: J. G. March (ed.). Handbook of organizations. Chicago: Rand McNally, pp. 142—193.Wennberg K., Wiklund J., DeTienne D. R., Cardon M. S. (2010). Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 361—375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.01.001Wennberg K., Wiklund J., DeTienne D. R., Cardon M. S. (2010). Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 361—375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.01.001

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.