voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-5-76-95voprecotest-5868Research ArticleМИКРОЭКОНОМИКАMICROECONOMICSФинансовая (не)устойчивость домохозяйств в России: масштабы и траектории переходаFinancial fragility of Russians: The magnitude and trajectories of transitionhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4760-8780КузинаО. Е.KuzinaO. E.

Кузина Ольга Евгеньевна – к. э. н, с. н. с. Лаборатории экономико-социологических исследований, проф. кафедры экономической социологии 

Москва

Olga E. Kuzina 

Moscow

kuzina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2044-3418МоисееваД. В.MoiseevaD. V.

Моисеева Дарья Викторовна – к. с. н., с. н. с. Лаборатории экономико-социологических исследований 

Москва

Daria V. Moiseeva 

Moscow

dmoiseeva@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202606052026057695Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5868

Оценены масштабы финансовой (не)устойчивости населения, которая определяется как (не)способность справиться с возможными неожиданными финансовыми трудностями, вызванными значительным снижением доходов или крупными, непредвиденными расходами. Предложена методика оценки масштабов финансовой (не)устойчивости россиян на основании трех критериев: 1) в широком определении к финансово неустойчивым отнесены домохозяйства с высокой долговой нагрузкой или без ликвидных сбережений; 2) в узком определении критерий высокой долговой нагрузки остался неизменным, а отсутствие ликвидных сбережений стало признаком финансовой неустойчивости только в сочетании с низкой субъективной оценкой своего материального положения; 3) субъективная оценка финансовой неустойчивости измерялась степенью уверенности в способности домохозяйства найти средства для покрытия неожиданно возникших крупных расходов. В качестве базы данных использованы результаты семи волн всероссийского опроса «Экономическое поведение домашних хозяйств», охватывающего население России в возрасте 18 лет и старше и реализуемого в НИУ ВШЭ с июня 2023 г. по октябрь—ноябрь 2025 г. Объем выборки в каждой волне — не менее 6000 человек. При использовании широкого определения доля россиян, проживающих в финансово неустойчивых домохозяйствах, за время проведения измерений выросла с 56,4 до 65,0%, узкого определения — от 20,5 до 23,3%, тогда как субъективная оценка изменялась от 46,6 до 48,5%. С учетом того, что среди финансово неустойчивых были те, которые с большей или меньшей степенью уверенности смогут найти деньги, чтобы покрыть в следующем месяце неожиданные крупные расходы, то масштаб финансовой неустойчивости по широкому определению снижается до 42,6% от всех опрошенных в октябре—ноябре 2025 г., по узкому — до 18,0%. Анализ панельной составляющей первых четырех волн исследования (2023—2024 гг.) показал, что постоянно в состоянии финансовой неустойчивости находились 43,8% респондентов (по широкому определению) и 7,1% (по узкому). Переход к неустойчивости чаще был связан с тратой сбережений, а выход из нее — с выходом из состояния перекредитованности.

The paper aims to assess the magnitude of financial fragility of Russians defined as the inability to cope with possible unexpected financial difficulties caused by a significant decrease in income or by large unforeseen expenses. The methodology includes three main indicators: (1) a broad definition — lack of liquid savings or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (2) a narrow definition — lack of liquid savings combined with a low subjective assessment of one’s financial situation or the presence(s) of over-indebtedness; (3) an assessment of confidence in their households’ ability to access a large sum of money to cover unexpected expenses in the next month. The database used is the results of seven waves of the all-Russian survey “Economic behavior of households”, covering the Russian population aged 18 and older and implemented at the HSE University from June 2023 to October—November 2025. The sample size for each wave was at least 6,000 people. Using the broad definition, the share of financially unstable households was 56.4%—65.0%, using the narrow definition — 20.5%—23.3%, and subjective assessment — 46.6%—48.5%. Analysis of the panel component revealed that 43.8% of respondents (by the broad definition) and 7.1% (by the narrow definition) were constantly in a state of financial fragility. The transition from financial fragility to resilience was most often associated with spending savings, and the exit from it was associated with exiting a state of over-indebtedness.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.