voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-4-27-43voprecotest-5811Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ ТЕОРИИISSUES OF THEORYО революциях и кризисах в экономической наукеOn revolutions and crises in economic sciencehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8169-729XАвтономовВ. С.AvtonomovV. S.

Автономов Владимир Сергеевич (vavtonomov@hse.ru), д. э. н., член-корр. РАН, проф. НИУ ВШЭ, завсектором ИМЭМО РАН

Москва

Vladimir S. Avtonomov

Moscow

vavtonomov@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова РАНРоссияHSE University; Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RASRussian Federation202607042026042743Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5811

Рассматривается применимость теории научных революций Т. Куна к экономической науке. Анализируются три ключевые «революции»: маржиналистская, кейнсианская и лукасианская (рациональных ожиданий), выделяются их стадии и особенности. Сделан акцент на асимметрии между кризисами (внешними и внутренними) и теоретическими ответами на них, а также на сложном взаимодействии экономической теории, политики и идеологии. Представленный анализ позволяет применить модель Куна для характеристики радикальных изменений в экономической науке. 

The paper studies the applicability of Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions to economics. We analyze three key “revolutions”: marginalist, Keynesian, and Lucasian (rational expectations), identifying their stages and characteristics. The focus is made on the asymmetry between crises (external and internal) and theoretical responses to them, as well as on the complex interactions among economic theory, policy, and ideology. The presented analysis suggests that Kuhn’s model is useful for describing periods of turbulence in economics, albeit with significant caveats. 

научная революцияразвитие экономической наукимаржиналистская революцияКунКейнсЛукасscientific revolutiondevelopment of economic sciencemarginal revolutionThomas KuhnJohn Maynard KeynesRobert LucasReferencesАвтономов В. (2013). Абстракция — мать порядка? (историко-методологические рассуждения о связи экономической науки и экономической политики) // Вопросы экономики. № 4. C. 4—23. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-4-4-23Avtonomov V. (2013). Abstraction as a mother of order? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 4—23. (In Russian). https:// doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-4-4-23Avtonomov V. S. (2020). Is there a connection between methodology of economic science and economic policy? In: Avtonomov V. S. In search of man: Essays in history and methodology of economic science. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ.; St. Petersbourg: Faculty of Liberal Arts of St Petersbourg State University, pp. 435—476. (In Russian).Avtonomov V. S. (2020). Is there a connection between methodology of economic science and economic policy? In: Avtonomov V. S. In search of man: Essays in history and methodology of economic science. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ.; St. Petersbourg: Faculty of Liberal Arts of St Petersbourg State University, pp. 435—476. (In Russian).Автономов В., Автономов Ю. (2016). Общая теория «споров о методах» в экономической науке // Общественные науки и современность. № 4. С. 5—20.Avtonomov V., Avtonomov Y. (2016). General theory of “method debates” in economic science. Obshchestvennye Nauki i Sovremennost, No. 4, pp. 5—20. (In Russian).Блауг М. (2015). Формалистическая революция 1950-х годов // Истоки: качественные сдвиги в экономической реальности и экономической науке. М.: Издат. дом ВШЭ. С. 37—56.Blaug M. (2015). The formalist revolution of 1950s. In: Origins: Qualitative changes in economic reality and economic science. Moscow: HSE Publ., pp. 37—56. (In Russian).Истоки (2023). 150 лет маржиналистской революции. М.: Издат. дом ВШЭ. https://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-2582-1Origins (2023). 150th anniversary of marginal revolution. Moscow: HSE Publ. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-2582-1Капелюшников P. И. (2018). О современном состоянии экономической науки: полу-социологические наблюдения // Вопросы экономики. № 5. С. 110—128. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-110-128Kapeliushnikov R. I. (2018). On current state of economics: Subjective semisociological observations. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 110—128. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-110-128Кейнс Дж. М. (2007). Общая теория занятости, процента и денег. Избранное. М.: Эксмо.Keynes J. M. (2007). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. Moscow: Eksmo. (In Russian).Кун Т. (1977). Структура научных революций. 2-е изд. М.: Прогресс.Kuhn T. (1977). The structure of scientific revolutions. 2nd ed. Moscow: Progress. (In Russian).]Мэнкью Н. Г. (2009). Макроэкономист как ученый и инженер // Вопросы экономики. № 5. С. 86—103. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2009-5-86-103Mankiw N. G. (2009). Macroeconomist as scientist and engineer. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 86—103. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2009-5-86-103Ambrosino A., Cedrini M., Davis J. (2024). Today’s economics: One, no one and one hundred thousand. European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 59—76. https://doi.org/10.1080/09672567.2023.2238857Ambrosino A., Cedrini M., Davis J. (2024). Today’s economics: One, no one and one hundred thousand. European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 59—76. https://doi.org/10.1080/09672567.2023.2238857Angrist J., Pischke J.-S. (2010). The credibility revolution in empirical economics: How better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 3—30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3Angrist J., Pischke J.-S. (2010). The credibility revolution in empirical economics: How better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 3—30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3Azariadis C. (2018). Riddles and models: A review essay on Michel De Vroey’s. A history of macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and beyond. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 56, No. 4, pp. 1538—1576. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20181439 Backhouse R., Cherrier B. (2017).Azariadis C. (2018). Riddles and models: A review essay on Michel De Vroey’s. A history of macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and beyond. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 56, No. 4, pp. 1538—1576. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20181439 Backhouse R., Cherrier B. (2017).The age of the applied economist: The transformation of economics since the 1970s. History of Political Economy, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 1—33. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-4166239The age of the applied economist: The transformation of economics since the 1970s. History of Political Economy, Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 1—33. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-4166239Backhouse R., Tribe K. (2018). The history of economics. A course for students and teachers. Newcastle upon Tyne: Agenda.Backhouse R., Tribe K. (2018). The history of economics. A course for students and teachers. Newcastle upon Tyne: Agenda.Bakeev M. (2023). Why not be data-driven? Historical arguments and their (ir)relevance to modern economics. Unpublished manuscript, Duke University. https:// ipl.econ.duke.edu/seminars/system/files/seminars/3763_paper.pdfBakeev M. (2023). Why not be data-driven? Historical arguments and their (ir)relevance to modern economics. Unpublished manuscript, Duke University. https:// ipl.econ.duke.edu/seminars/system/files/seminars/3763_paper.pdfBaumberger J. (1977). No Kuhnian revolutions in economics. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 1—20. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1977.11503410Baumberger J. (1977). No Kuhnian revolutions in economics. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 1—20. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1977.11503410Baumol W. (2009). Endogenous growth: Valuable advance, substantive misnomer. In: M. Boyanovsky, K. Hoover (eds.). Robert Solow and the development of growth eco nomics. Durham: Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-2009-029Baumol W. (2009). Endogenous growth: Valuable advance, substantive misnomer. In: M. Boyanovsky, K. Hoover (eds.). Robert Solow and the development of growth eco nomics. Durham: Duke University Press. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-2009-029Blanchard O. (2017). The need for different classes of macroeconomic models. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Blanchard O. (2017). The need for different classes of macroeconomic models. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Colander D. (2010). Building a science of economics for the real world. Testimony, submitted to the Congress of the United States, House Science and Technology Committee, July 20th.Colander D. (2010). Building a science of economics for the real world. Testimony, submitted to the Congress of the United States, House Science and Technology Committee, July 20th.De Vroey M. (1975). The transition to neoclassical economics: A scientific revolution. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 415—440. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1975.11503296De Vroey M. (1975). The transition to neoclassical economics: A scientific revolution. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 415—440. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1975.11503296De Vroey M. (2016). A history of macroeconomics. From Keynes to Lucas and beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511843617De Vroey M. (2016). A history of macroeconomics. From Keynes to Lucas and beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511843617Dillard D. (1978). Revolutions in economic theory. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 705—724. https://doi.org/10.2307/1057724Dillard D. (1978). Revolutions in economic theory. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 705—724. https://doi.org/10.2307/1057724Drakopoulos S., Karayiannis A. (2005). A review of Kuhnian and Lakatosian “explanations” in economics. History of Economic Ideas, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 51—73.Drakopoulos S., Karayiannis A. (2005). A review of Kuhnian and Lakatosian “explanations” in economics. History of Economic Ideas, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 51—73.Duarte P. G., Lima G. T. (2012). Microfoundations reconsidered: The relationship of micro and macroeconomics in historical perspective. Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar.Duarte P. G., Lima G. T. (2012). Microfoundations reconsidered: The relationship of micro and macroeconomics in historical perspective. Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar.Eichner A., Kregel J. (1975). An essay on post-Keynesian theory: A new paradigm in economics. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 1293—1314.Eichner A., Kregel J. (1975). An essay on post-Keynesian theory: A new paradigm in economics. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 1293—1314.Frickel S., Gross N. (2005). A general theory of scientific/intellectual movements. American Sociological Review, Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 204—232. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240507000202Frickel S., Gross N. (2005). A general theory of scientific/intellectual movements. American Sociological Review, Vol. 70, No. 2, pp. 204—232. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240507000202Hutchison T. (2000). On the methodology of economics and the formalist revolution. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.Hutchison T. (2000). On the methodology of economics and the formalist revolution. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.Keynes J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 209—223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087Keynes J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 209—223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087King J. E. (2012). The microfoundations delusion: Metaphor and dogma in the history of economics. Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781009123King J. E. (2012). The microfoundations delusion: Metaphor and dogma in the history of economics. Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781009123Krueger J., Kutzner F. (2017). Homo anomalus: Richard Thaler’s Kuhnian adventure. American Journal of Psychology, Vol. 130, No. 3, pp. 385—389. https://doi.org/10.5406/amerjpsyc.130.3.0385Krueger J., Kutzner F. (2017). Homo anomalus: Richard Thaler’s Kuhnian adventure. American Journal of Psychology, Vol. 130, No. 3, pp. 385—389. https://doi.org/10.5406/amerjpsyc.130.3.0385Loasby B. (1971). Hypothesis and paradigm in the theory of the firm. Economic Journal, Vol. 81, No. 324, pp. 863—885. https://doi.org/10.2307/2230322Loasby B. (1971). Hypothesis and paradigm in the theory of the firm. Economic Journal, Vol. 81, No. 324, pp. 863—885. https://doi.org/10.2307/2230322Lucas R. E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 103—124. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1Lucas R. E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 103—124. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1Lucas R. E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 1, pp. 19—46. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6Lucas R. E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 1, pp. 19—46. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6Lucas R. E. (1987). Studies in business-cycles theory. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Lucas R. E. (1987). Studies in business-cycles theory. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Lucas R. E. (2004). Keynote address to the 2003 HOPE conference: My Keynesian education. History of Political Economy, Vol. 36, No. 5, pp. 12—24. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-36-Suppl_1-12Lucas R. E. (2004). Keynote address to the 2003 HOPE conference: My Keynesian education. History of Political Economy, Vol. 36, No. 5, pp. 12—24. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-36-Suppl_1-12Negishi T. (1979). Microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics. Amsterdam: North Holland.Negishi T. (1979). Microeconomic foundations of Keynesian economics. Amsterdam: North Holland.Parsons D. (1985). Was Keynes Kuhnian? Keynes and the idea of theoretical revolutions. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 451—471. https:// doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400004336Parsons D. (1985). Was Keynes Kuhnian? Keynes and the idea of theoretical revolutions. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 451—471. https:// doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400004336Ramsey F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No. 152, pp. 543—559. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224098Ramsey F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No. 152, pp. 543—559. https://doi.org/10.2307/2224098Stanfield R. (1974). Kuhnian scientific revolutions and the Keynesian revolution. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 97—109. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1974.11503164Stanfield R. (1974). Kuhnian scientific revolutions and the Keynesian revolution. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 97—109. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.1974.11503164Stigler G. J. (1969). Does economics have a useful past? History of Political Economy, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 217—230. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-1-2-217Stigler G. J. (1969). Does economics have a useful past? History of Political Economy, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 217—230. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-1-2-217Wren-Lewis S. (2016). Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution. Review of Keynesian Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 20—35. https://doi.org/10.4337/ roke.2016.01.03Wren-Lewis S. (2016). Unravelling the New Classical Counter Revolution. Review of Keynesian Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 20—35. https://doi.org/10.4337/ roke.2016.01.03

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.