voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-8-125-154voprecotest-5675Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОБЩЕСТВЕННОГО СЕКТОРАPUBLIC ECONOMICSДвусторонняя каузальность имущественного неравенства и экономического развитияThe two-way causality of wealth inequality and economic developmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2829-9900ДорофеевМ. Л.DorofeevM. L.

Дорофеев Михаил Львович, к. э. н., доцент кафедры общественных финансов 

Москва

Mikhail L. Dorofeev

Moscow

dorofeevml@yandex.ruФинансовый университет при Правительстве РФРоссияFinancial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian Federation20261108202608125154Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5675

Проблема выявления причинно-следственных связей между имущественным неравенством и экономическим развитием приобретает особую актуальность в условиях глобальной экономической нестабильности и реализации национальных целей устойчивого развития. Настоящее исследование обусловлено необходимостью уточнить характер двунаправленной каузальности между имущественным неравенством и показателями экономического роста для разработки эффективной стратегии государственного финансового регулирования. Цель исследования — эмпирическая оценка двунаправленной каузальности между имущественным неравенством и экономическим ростом с учетом гетерогенности эффектов по уровню среднедушевых доходов. Результаты показывают принципиальную асимметрию в анализе влияния имущественного неравенства на экономические показатели. В моделях темпов экономического роста прямая связь с имущественным неравенством не подтверждается. Напротив, в моделях уровня благосостояния (логарифм ВВП на душу населения по ППС) выявлена статистически значимая нелинейная зависимость, указывающая на то, что рост имущественного неравенства ассоциируется со снижением уровня благосостояния вплоть до порогового значения 0,84 по коэффициенту Джини. Впервые на репрезентативной глобальной выборке продемонстрировано, что агрегированные модели, не разделяющие влияние имущественного неравенства на уровень благосостояния (размеры подушевого ВВП) и на темпы экономического роста, могут приводить к искаженным выводам и смешению противоположно направленных эффектов. Выявлена асимметрия механизмов формирования имущественного неравенства между странами с низким и высоким уровнем дохода, опровергающая универсальную применимость гипотезы Кузнеца к распределению богатства и указывающая на необходимость отказаться от поиска единой кривой в пользу контекстно зависимого анализа. В исследовании при оценке и регулировании имущественного неравенства предлагается методологический переход от агрегированных к структурно-дифференцированным подходам, в рамках которого диагностика строится не на уровне индекса Джини, а на декомпозиции богатства по функциональному назначению активов и институциональному контексту. На основании полученных результатов для Российской Федерации рекомендуется как минимум сохранить текущий уровень имущественного неравенства посредством применения дифференцированного налогообложения активов с учетом их функционального назначения. Целесообразно создать условия для умеренного ускорения темпов экономического роста при осторожной трансформации системы имущественного налогообложения, механизмов наследования, усиления прозрачности владения активами, поскольку краткосрочные фискальные меры на определенной стадии не способны преодолеть структурную долгосрочную устойчивость имущественного неравенства.

Identifying causal relationships between wealth inequality and economic development has gained particular relevance amidst global economic instability and the implementation of national sustainable development goals. The timeliness of this study is driven by the need to clarify the nature of bidirectional causality between wealth inequality and economic growth indicators to develop effective strategies for state financial regulation. The objective of this research is to empirically assess the bidirectional causality between wealth inequality and economic growth, accounting for the heterogeneity of effects across per capita income levels. The results reveal a fundamental asymmetry in the impact of wealth inequality on economic indicators. In models of economic growth rates, a direct link with wealth inequality is not supported. Conversely, models of welfare levels (log GDP per capita at PPP) demonstrate a statistically significant nonlinear relationship, indicating that rising wealth inequality is associated with declining welfare levels up to a threshold value of 0.84 on the wealth Gini coefficient. Drawing on a representative global sample, the study demonstrates for the first time that aggregated models failing to distinguish between the effects of wealth inequality on welfare levels and on growth rates can produce biased conclusions and conflate opposing directional effects. The research identifies a fundamental asymmetry in the mechanisms of wealth inequality formation between low- and high-income countries, thereby refuting the universal applicability of Kuznets hypothesis to wealth distribution and highlighting the need to abandon the search for a single curve in favor of context-dependent analysis. It justifies a methodological shift from aggregated to structurally differentiated approaches, in which diagnostics are based not solely on the Gini index but on the decomposition of wealth by functional asset categories and institutional context. Based on these findings, the following policy recommendations are proposed for the Russian Federation. Wealth inequality should be stabilized at its current level through differentiated taxation of assets, taking into account their functional purpose. It is advisable to create conditions for moderate acceleration of economic growth rates while cautiously transforming the system of property taxation, inheritance mechanisms, and transparency of asset ownership. Short-term fiscal measures, at certain stages of development, are insufficient to overcome the structural long-term resilience of wealth inequality.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.