voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-2-101-126voprecotest-5662Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSФеномен «избыточного образования» выпускников российских вузовOvereducation among Russian university graduateshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1497-5733РожковаК. В.RozhkovaK. V.

Рожкова Ксения Викторовна - к. э. н., с. н. с. лаборатории исследований рынка труда (ЛИРТ) факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Ksenia V. Rozhkova.

Moscow

krozhkova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0215-7525ЕмелинаН. К.YemelinaN. K.

Емелина Наталья Константиновна - к. э. н., с. н. с. ЛИРТ факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Natalya K. Yemelina.

Moscow

nyemelina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2396-6911РощинС. Ю.RoshchinS. Y.

Рощин Сергей Юрьевич - к. э. н., заведующий ЛИРТ факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Sergey Y. Roshchin.

Moscow

sroshchin@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8346-6628ТравкинП. В.TravkinP. V.

Травкин Павел Викторович - к. э. н., с. н. с. ЛИРТ факультета экономических наук НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Pavel V. Travkin.

Moscow

ptravkin@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation20260702202602101126Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5662

В литературе ситуацию, при которой индивид обладает более высоким уровнем формального образования, чем предполагает занимаемое им рабочее место, называют избыточным образованием (overeducation). В условиях ограниченности кадров, характерной для российского рынка труда, проблема приобретает особую остроту, но остается недостаточно исследованной. Рассмотрено избыточное образование на основе административных данных выпускников российских вузов. Оценены пробит-модель с коррекцией самоотбора для вероятности избыточного образования, а также зарплатное уравнение Минцера в различных спецификациях, в том числе панельная регрессия с фиксированными эффектами. Результаты показывают, что в среднем 35% выпускников высшего образования оказываются избыточно образованными для занимаемого рабочего места. Чаще на неподходящих рабочих местах заняты мужчины, заочно получившие образование в неселективных вузах в области сельскохозяйственных или гуманитарных наук. В среднем избыточно образованные выпускники получают зарплатный штраф в размере 20% по сравнению с выпускниками, занятыми на подходящих рабочих местах. Использование панельной регрессии с фиксированными эффектами сокращает штраф до 7% на старте карьеры. С одной стороны, избыточность образования частично является компенсацией его низкого качества, которое не позволяет выпускникам занимать квалифицированные рабочие места, действительно требующие высшего образования. С другой стороны, структурное устройство рынка труда в ряде случаев не предполагает наличие достаточного числа квалифицированных рабочих мест для работников с высшим образованием. Важную роль играют индивидуальные ненаблюдаемые различия в производительности и способностях.

Overeducation, also named as “vertical mismatch” in the research literature, occurs when an individual possesses a higher level of formal qualification than is required for his/her current job. Given the recent shortage of personnel in the Russian labor market, this problem has become particularly acute, but remains insufficiently studied. This paper examines the issue of overeducation in the Russian labour market by focusing on the educational and professional backgrounds of recent university graduates, using administrative data. A probit model with Heckman correction for self-selection into employment is used to estimate the probability of overeducation, as well as a fixed effects wage regression model to estimate the returns to overeducation, accounting for unobserved characteristics. The results show that, on average, 35% of higher education graduates are overeducated for their jobs. Men who have received part-time higher education at non-selective universities in the fields of agriculture or humanities are more likely to be employed in unsuitable jobs. On average, overeducated graduates receive a 20% wage penalty compared to graduates employed in suitable jobs. The use of panel regression with fixed effects reduces the penalty to 7% at the start of their careers. On the one hand, overeducation compensates for its low quality, which prevents graduates from occupying skilled jobs that actually require higher education. On the other hand, the structure of the labour market does not imply sufficient demand for workers with higher education. Individual unobservable differences in productivity and abilities play an important role in the distribution of graduates across jobs of different skill levels.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.