voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2013-8-82-105voprecotest-565Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ ТЕОРИИISSUES OF THEORYФеномен неполного знания будущего в экономической теорииHow Is Non-knowledge Represented in Economic Theory?СветловаЕ.SvetlovaE.

проф. Международного университета прикладных наук Karlshochschule (Карлсруэ, Германия)

esvetlova@karlshochschule.deВан ЭлстХ.Van ElstH.

проф. Международного университета прикладных наук Karlshochschule (Карлсруэ, Германия)

hvanelst@karlshochschule.deМеждународный университет прикладных наук Karlshochschule (Карлсруэ, Германия)ГерманияKarlshochschule International University (Karlsruhe, Germany)GermanyМеждународный университет прикладных наук Karlshochschule (Карлсруэ, Германия)Россияhvanelst@karlshochschule.deRussian Federation2013200820130882105Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20132013Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/565

В статье рассматриваются различные экономико-теоретические подходы к задаче принятия решений агентами, не имеющими информации о будущих событиях. Дан краткий обзор подходов к описанию поведения в условиях неопределенности, понимаемой либо как неясность (ситуация, в которой вероятности будущих событий неизвестны), либо как неосведомленность (ситуация неполного знания субъектом всех возможных будущих событий). Описаны способы формализации феномена незнания и связанные с ними еще не решенные проблемы.

In this article, we address the question of how non-knowledge about future events that influence economic agents’ decisions in choice settings has been formally represented in economic theory up to date. To position our discussion within the ongoing debate on uncertainty, we provide a?brief review of historical developments in economic theory and decision theory. Uncertainty is thereby understood as either based on decision-making in the context of a?state space representing the exogenous world, as in Savage’s axiomatisation and some successor concepts (ambiguity as situations with unknown probabilities), or, based on decision-making over a?set of menus of potential future opportunities, providingthe possibility of derivation of agents’ subjective state spaces (unawareness as situation with imperfect subjective knowledge of all future events possible).

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.