voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-5-20voprecotest-5515Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSДинамика налоговых поступлений и экономический цикл в РФThe dynamics of tax revenues and the economic cycle in the Russian Federationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6667-9958Синельников-МурылевС. Г.Sinelnikov-MurylevS. G.

Синельников-Мурылев Сергей Германович - д. э. н., проф., г. н. с. ВАВТ Минэкономразвития России, научный руководитель Института Гайдара.

Москва

Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, General Researcher, Russian Foreign Trade Academy under the RF Ministry of Economic Development, scientific director, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

Moscow

sinel@vavt.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3962-7428БелевС. Г.BelevS. G.

Белев Сергей Геннадьевич - к. э. н., с. н. с. лаборатории исследований бюджетной политики Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ) РАНХиГС.

Москва

Sergey G. Belev – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher of the Budget Policy Research Laboratory of the Applied Economic Research Institute.

Moscow

belev@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4732-8818МатвеевЕ. О.MatveevE. O.

Матвеев Евгений Олегович - н. с. лаборатории исследований бюджетной политики ИПЭИ РАНХиГС.

Москва

Evgenii O. Matveev - Researcher of the Budget Policy Research Laboratory of the Applied Economic Research Institute.

Moscow

matveev-eo@ranepa.ruВсероссийская академия внешней торговли Минэкономразвития России; Институт экономической политики имени Е.Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation202507112025011520Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5515

Оцениваются характер и степень процикличности налоговых поступлений в бюджетную систему Российской Федерации. Это необходимо для анализа эффективности функционирования бюджетной системы с точки зрения сглаживания экономического цикла и обеспечения бесперебойного финансирования государственных расходов. Для основных видов налогов с помощью фильтра Ходрика—Прескотта выделена циклическая компонента и рассчитана корреляция циклических компонент налоговых поступлений с циклической компонентой ВВП. По результатам анализа к конъюнктурной части налоговых поступлений можно отнести поступления налога на прибыль, НДС на товары, ввозимые на территорию Российской Федерации, и нефтегазовые доходы. К структурной части — поступления НДФЛ, НДС на товары, реализуемые на территории Российской Федерации, и акцизы. Согласно проведенному VAR-моделированию, налоги, относящиеся к конъюнктурной части поступлений в бюджет, не служат автоматическими стабилизаторами и не сглаживают колебания выпуска.

This paper aims to estimate the cyclical behavior of tax revenues of the Russian Federation budget system. Such estimates are necessary to analyze its ability to effectively smooth the economic cycle and to ensure the stability of public expenditures financing. We identified the cyclical component of the main types of taxes with the help of the Hodrick—Prescott filter. Cyclical components of tax revenues were used to calculate correlations with the cyclical component of GDP. The results show that the cyclical component of tax revenues includes corporate income tax, value-added tax on goods imported, and oil and gas revenues. The structural part includes personal income tax, value-added tax on goods sold in the Russian Federation, and excise taxes. According to the VAR modeling, taxes of the cyclical part of budget revenues cannot be characterized as automatic stabilizers.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.