voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-9-126-141voprecotest-5494Research ArticleДИСКУССИОННЫЙ КЛУБDEBATING SOCIETYЛовушка нарративов: влияние научных гипотез на эффективность экономической политикиThe trap of narratives: The impact of scientific hypotheses on the effectiveness of economic policyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-7775МиловидовВ. Д.MilovidovV. D.

Миловидов Владимир Дмитриевич, д. э. н., чл.-корр. РАН, зав. кафедрой международных финансов МГИМО МИД России, зам. директора по науке ИМЭМО РАН

Москва

Vladimir D. Milovidov, head of chair of international finance department of Moscow state institute of international relations, deputy director of IMEMO RAS, doctor of economics, correspondent member of RAS

Moscow

vmilovidov@hotmail.comМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) МИД России; Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова РАНРоссияMoscow State Institute of International Relations of The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Federation, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation20250709202509126141Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5494

Какую роль сыграли экономические нарративы в формировании экономической политики в России в первой четверти XXI в.?  К  настоящему времени российская экономическая политика оказалась в ловушке нарративов, которые доминировали в интеллектуальной  экономической среде на протяжении не менее 20 лет. Отмечается  сдвиг  в  семантике научных исследований, который выразился в постепенном снижении популярности проблематики  экономического  роста  и  усилении  внимания к монетарным факторам развития, проблемам инфляции и финансовой стабильности. Показано выдвижение Банка России на роль ключевого макроэкономического идеолога  и  регулятора,  а  важнейшим  инструментом монетарной политики становится ключевая ставка. Фокусирование усилий регулятора на монетарных инструментах экономической политики и прежде всего процентной ставке определено как «ловушка нарративов». Сделанные выводы помогут в поиске новых подходов к управлению сложными экономическими процессами в период глобальных экономических трансформаций.

The article presents some of the author’s reflections on the role played by economic narratives in the formation of economic policy in Russia in the first quarter of the 21st century. In the author’s opinion, by now Russian economic policy has found itself in the “trap of narratives” that have dominated the intellectual economic environment for at least 20 years. The author notes a shift in the semantics of scientific research, which is expressed in the gradual decline in the popularity of economic growth and increased attention to monetary factors of development, inflation and financial stability. At the same time, the article shows that the Bank of Russia assumed the role of the main macroeconomic ideologist and regulator, and the key rate became the most important instrument of its monetary policy. The author defines the focus of the regulator’s efforts on monetary instruments of economic policy and, above all, the interest rate as a “narrative trap”. The author presents his view on how and why this economy found itself in this trap, hoping that his conclusions will help in the search for new approaches to the management of complex economic processes in a difficult period of global economic transformation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.