voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-6-5-21voprecotest-5403Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSЕвропейский союз в мировой торговой войне Дональда ТрампаEuropean Union in Donald Trump’s global trade warhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8548-9356КлиноваМ. В.KlinovaM. V.

Клинова Марина Вилениновна, д. э. н., гл. н. с.

Москва

Marina V. Klinova

Moscow

 

marina.v.klinova@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-2400-2485КондратьевМ. Б.KondratyevM. B.

Кондратьев Марк Борисович, м. н. с. 

Москва

 

Mark B. Kondratyev

Moscow

m.b.kondratyev@yandex.ruНациональный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова РАНPrimakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS20250706202506521Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5403

Рассмотрен разворот торговой политики США во второй срок президентства Д. Трампа к неопротекционизму, который противоречит принципам многосторонней торговой системы и подрывает трансатлантические отношения. Новая республиканская администрация США вводит таможенные пошлины, ограничивает торговые потоки, проводя противоречивую политику с точки зрения устоявшейся мировой хозяйственной практики. Эта политика, нацеленная на снижение не только дефицита торгового баланса, но и госдолга и налогов, а также на оживление производства в США, может нанести ущерб самой американской экономике и привести к глобальной рецессии. Несмотря на переплетение экономик США и ЕС, институты интеграционного объединения и руководители отдельных стран-членов настроены на ответные меры, чтобы поддержать собственное производство. В этом противостоянии не исключены компромиссы. Приводятся оценки влияния вводимых Трампом пошлин на экономику, проанализированы возможности и ограничения в принятии ответных мер ЕС.

The article examines the US trade policy reversal during the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency towards neo-protectionism, which contradicts the principles of the multilateral trading system and undermines transatlantic relations. The new Republican administration imposes tariffs and restricts trade flows, following a policy that weakens established global economic practices. This policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit, national debt, and taxes, as well as revitalizing production in the US, may harm the American economy itself and trigger a global recession. Despite the deep economic interdependence between the US and the EU, the institutions of the Union, along with the leaders of individual member states, are determined to retaliate to safeguard their domestic industries. In this confrontation, compromises cannot be ruled out. The article provides an assessment of the economic impact of the duties imposed by Trump and examines the possibilities and limitations of the EU’s retaliatory measures.

торговая политикатаможенные пошлиныпротекционизмторговый балансмировая экономикарецессияtrade policycustoms dutiesprotectionismtrade balanceworld economyrecessionСтатья подготовлена при поддержке гранта Министерства науки и высшего образования РФ на проведение крупных научных проектов по приоритетным направлениям научно-технологического развития №075-15-2024-551 «Глобальные и региональные центры силы в формирующемся мироустройстве».This article was prepared with the support of a grant from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation for major scientific projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development No. 075-15-2024-551 “Global and regional centers of power in the emerging world order”.ReferencesАфонцев С. А. (2019). Новые тенденции в развитии мировой экономики // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. Т. 63. № 5. С. 36–46. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-36-46Afontsev S. A. (2019). New trends in global economy. World Eсonomy and International Relations, Vol. 63. No. 5, pp. 36–46. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-36-46Белов В. Б., Борко Ю. А., Циренщиков В. С. (2011). Роль торговой политики ЕС в инновационном развитии // Доклады Института Европы. № 271.Arita S., Mitchell L., Beckman J. (2015). Estimating the effects of selected sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade on US-EU agricultural trade. USDA Economic Research Report, No. 199.Варнавский В. Г. (2025). Мировая экономика: драйверы, тренды, перспективы. М.: «Весь мир».Belov V. B., Borko Yu. A., Tsirenshchikov V. S. The role of EU trade policy in innovative development. Doklady Instituta Evropy, No. 271. (in Russian).Гловели Г. Д. (2005). Лист, Витте и «национальная экономия» в России // Лист Ф. Национальная система политической экономии. Граф Витте С.Ю. По поводу национализма. Национальная экономия и Фридрих Лист. Менделеев Д.И. Толковый тариф, или Исследование о развитии промышленности России в связи с ее общим таможенным тарифом 1891 года. М.: «Европа». С. 11–20.Berden K., Francois J. (2015). Quantifying non-tariff measures for TTIP. CEPS Special Report, No. 116.Давыдов А. Ю. (2019). Торговая политика администрации Трампа // США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура. № 10. С. 40‒53 https://doi.org/10.31857/S032120680006804-8Berg A. (2025). Trump's tariffs – how should the EU react? CER, February 26. https://www.cer.eu/insights/trumps-tariffs-how-should-eu-reactДмитриев С. С. (2020). Протекционистский вектор торговой политики администрации Трампа // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. Т. 64. № 2. С. 15–23. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-2-15-23Brown C. P. (2025) Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide. PIIE, April 15. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guideЗагашвили В. С. (2024). Мировая торговля в условиях кризиса глобализации // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. Т. 68. № 11. С. 5–14. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2024-68-11-5-14Brown C. P., Kolb M. (2025). Trump’s trade war timeline: An up-to-date guide. PIIE, January 20. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2018/trumps-trade-war-timeline-date-guideИсаченко Т. М. (2014) Свобода торговли или протекционизм: проблемы стратегического выбора // РСМД. 24.01.2014.Clausing K., Lovely M.E. (2024) Trump's bigger tariff proposals would cost the typical American household over $2,600 a year. PIIE, August 21. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/trumps-bigger-tariff-proposals-would-cost-typical-american-household-overКолпаков К. О., Шагалов В. А. (2019). Торговая политика президента Трампа и стратегия национальной безопасности США. Международные отношения и общество. № 2. С. 101–107.Dabrowski M. (2024). The risk of protectionism: What can be lost? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, Vol. 17, No. 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17080374Кузнецов А. В. (ред.) (2020). Феномен Трампа. М.: ИНИОН.Davydov A. Yu. (2019). President Trump's trade policy. USA & Canada: Economics, Politics, Culture, No. 10, pp. 40–53. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S032120680006804-8Портанский А. П. (2023). ЕС – США: новые барьеры в торговле // Современная Европа. № 4. С. 119–131. https://doi.org/10.31857/S020170832304006XDmitriev S. S. (2020). Protectionist vector of Trump administration trade policy. World Eсonomy and International Relations, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 15–23. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-2-15-23Савинов Ю. А., Зеленюк А. Н., Тарановская Е. В., Орлова Г. А., Скурова А. В. (2019) Усиление протекционизма во внешней торговле США // Российский внешнеэкономический вестник. 2019. № 1. С. 36–51.Draghi M. (2025). Forget the US – Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself. The Financial Times, February 14. https://www.ft.com/content/13a830ce-071a-477f-864c-e499ce9e6065Сидоров А. А. (2022). Особенности современного протекционизма США и ЕС в отношении России // Вестник МГИМО-Университета. № 4. С. 81–101. https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-4-85-81-101Du J., Shepotylo O. (2025). Tariffs and triumph: The UK’s edge in a fractured world. Insight Paper. Aston Business School. https://www.aston.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Tariffs%20and%20Triumph_v5.pdfСидоров А. А. (2024). Доступ на внешние рынки в контексте конъюнктурных исследований // Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук. № 1. С. 138–153. https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2024_1_138_153ECB (2025). Economic Bulletin. Issue 2.Arita S., Mitchell L., Beckman J. (2015). Estimating the effects of selected sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade on US-EU agricultural trade. USDA Economic Research Report, No. 199.Fajgelbaum P. D., Goldberg P. K., Kennedy P. J., Khandelwal A. K. (2020). The return to protectionism. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 135, No. 1, pp. 1–55. http://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036Berden K., Francois J. (2015). Quantifying non-tariff measures for TTIP. CEPS Special Report, No. 116.Fetzer Th., Schwarz C. (2021). Tariffs and politics: Evidence from Trump’s trade wars. The Economic Journal, Vol. 131, No. 636, pp. 1717–1741. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa122Berg A. (2025). Trump's tariffs – how should the EU react? CER, February 26. https://www.cer.eu/insights/trumps-tariffs-how-should-eu-reactFidler D. P. (2017). President Trump, trade policy, and American grand strategy: From common advantage to collective carnage. Asian Journal of WTO and International Health Law & Policy, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 1–31.Brown C. P. (2025) Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide. PIIE, April 15. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guideGarcía Bercero I., Mavroidis P. C., Sapir A. (2024). How the European Union should respond to Trump’s tariffs. Bruegel Policy Brief, No. 33.Brown C. P., Kolb M. (2025). Trump’s trade war timeline: An up-to-date guide. PIIE, January 20. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2018/trumps-trade-war-timeline-date-guideGloveli G. D. (2005). List, Witte and Russia's ‘national economy’. In: List F. National system of political economy. Count Witte S. Yu. Concerning nationalism. National economy and Friedrich List. Mendeleev D. I. Explanatory tariff, or study on the development of industry in Russia in connection with its general customs tariff of 1891. Moscow: “Evropa”, pp. 11–20. (in Russian).Clausing K., Lovely M.E. (2024) Trump's bigger tariff proposals would cost the typical American household over $2,600 a year. PIIE, August 21. https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/trumps-bigger-tariff-proposals-would-cost-typical-american-household-overIrwin D. A. (2017a). Clashing over commerce: A history of US trade. Chicago, London: University of Chicago Press.Dabrowski M. (2024). The risk of protectionism: What can be lost? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, Vol. 17, No. 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17080374Irwin D. A. (2017b). The false promise of protectionism: Why Trump's trade policy could backfire. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 96, pp. 45–56.Draghi M. (2025). Forget the US – Europe has successfully put tariffs on itself. The Financial Times, February 14. https://www.ft.com/content/13a830ce-071a-477f-864c-e499ce9e6065Irwin D. A. (2019). U.S. trade policy in historical perspective. NBER Working Paper, No. 26256.Du J., Shepotylo O. (2025). Tariffs and triumph: The UK’s edge in a fractured world. Insight Paper. Aston Business School. https://www.aston.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Tariffs%20and%20Triumph_v5.pdfIsachenko T. M. (2014). Free trade or protectionism: Problems of strategic choice. Russian International Affairs Council, January 24 (in Russian).ECB (2025). Economic Bulletin. Issue 2.Kolpakov K. O., Shagalov V. A. (2019) President Trump’s trade policy and US national security strategy. Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya i Obshchestvo, No. 2, pp. 101–107. (in Russian).Fajgelbaum P. D., Goldberg P. K., Kennedy P. J., Khandelwal A. K. (2020). The return to protectionism. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 135, No. 1, pp. 1–55. http://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036Kuznetsov A. V. (ed.) (2020). The Trump phenomenon. Moscow: INION (in Russian).Fetzer Th., Schwarz C. (2021). Tariffs and politics: Evidence from Trump’s trade wars. The Economic Journal, Vol. 131, No. 636, pp. 1717–1741. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa122Maddison A. (2014). Economic growth in the West: Comparative experience in Europe and North America. London, New York: Routledge.Fidler D. P. (2017). President Trump, trade policy, and American grand strategy: From common advantage to collective carnage. Asian Journal of WTO and International Health Law & Policy, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 1–31.McKibbin W. J., Noland M. (2025). Modeling a US-EU trade war: Tariffs won't improve US global trade balance. PIIE, March 24. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/modeling-us-eu-trade-war-tariffs-wont-improve-us-global-trade-balanceGarcía Bercero I., Mavroidis P. C., Sapir A. (2024). How the European Union should respond to Trump’s tariffs. Bruegel Policy Brief, No. 33.Min H.-K., Kang J. H. (2022). The sustainability of Trump's trade policies. Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade Research Paper, No. 18/IER/23/4-3.Irwin D. A. (2017a). Clashing over commerce: A history of US trade. Chicago, London: University of Chicago Press.Miran St. (2024). A user’s guide to restructuring the global trading system. Hudson Bay Capital, November. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfIrwin D. A. (2017b). The false promise of protectionism: Why Trump's trade policy could backfire. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 96, pp. 45–56.Portanskiy A. P. (2023). EU – US: New barriers to trade. Sovremennaya Evropa, No. 4, pp. 119–131. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S020170832304006XIrwin D. A. (2019). U.S. trade policy in historical perspective. NBER Working Paper, No. 26256.Rostow W. W. (1978). The world economy. History & prospect. Austin: University of Texas Press.Maddison A. (2014). Economic growth in the West: Comparative experience in Europe and North America. London, New York: Routledge.Savinov Y. A., Zelenuk A. N., Taranovskaja E. V., Orlova G. A., Skurova A. V. (2019). Increased protectionism in US trade policy. Russian Foreign Economic Journal, No. 1, pp. 36–51. (in Russian).McKibbin W. J., Noland M. (2025). Modeling a US-EU trade war: Tariffs won't improve US global trade balance. PIIE, March 24. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/modeling-us-eu-trade-war-tariffs-wont-improve-us-global-trade-balanceSidorov A. A. (2022). Features of the modern protectionism of the US and the EU towards Russia. MGIMO Review of International Relations, No. 4, pp. 81–101. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2022-4-85-81-101Min H.-K., Kang J. H. (2022). The sustainability of Trump's trade policies. Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade Research Paper, No. 18/IER/23/4-3.Sidorov A. A. (2024). Foreign market access in the system of market research. Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Akademii Nauk, No. 1, pp. 138–153. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2024_1_138_153Miran St. (2024). A user’s guide to restructuring the global trading system. Hudson Bay Capital, November. https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdfTinbergen J. (1976). Reshaping the international order: A report to the club of Rome. Dutton.Rostow W. W. (1978). The world economy. History & prospect. Austin: University of Texas Press.Varnavskiy V. G. (2025). World economy: Drivers, trends, prospects. Moscow: “Ves Mir”. (in Russian).Tinbergen J. (1976). Reshaping the international order: A report to the club of Rome. Dutton.Wheeler T. (2025). Are tariffs Big Tech’s new tool against EU regulation? Brookings, January 20. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-tariffs-big-techs-new-tool-against-eu-regulation/Wheeler T. (2025). Are tariffs Big Tech’s new tool against EU regulation? Brookings, January 20. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-tariffs-big-techs-new-tool-against-eu-regulation/Zagashvili V. S. (2024). World trade in the conditions of globalization crisis. World Eсonomy and International Relations, Vol. 68, No. 11, pp. 5–14. (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2024-68-11-5-14

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.