voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-83-110voprecotest-5298Research ArticleМИКРОЭКОНОМИКАMICROECONOMICSС командой и без долгов: факторы выживаемости малого бизнеса в России в 2021–2023 гг.With a team and without debt: Factors affecting small business survival in Russia, 2021—2023КазунА. П.KazunA. P.

Казун Антон Павлович, к. соц. н., директор Института анализа предприятий и рынков 

Москва

Anton P. Kazun

Moscow

kazun.anton@gmail.comНИУ ВШЭРоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation2025170520250583110Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5298

Мы ищем ответ на вопрос: какие параметры малого бизнеса и характеристики его владельца связаны с более высокими шансами на продолжение деятельности? В анализе используются данные десяти волн лонгитюдного опроса на панели малого бизнеса ФОМ, проводившихся с июля 2021 по конец 2023 г. С применением метода анализа выживаемости показано, что самым сильным предиктором закрытия предприятия является обращение к заемным средствам. Более высокую устойчивость в данный период показали фирмы, имеющие наемных работников. Бизнес без сотрудников по найму закрывался реже, если им управлял мужчина, если услуги оказывались в сфере торговли и продвигались через интернет.

In the present study, we investigate which parameters of small businesses and characteristics of their owners are associated with a higher likelihood of continued operation. Our analysis employs data from ten waves of a longitudinal survey conducted on the SMBiz FOM small business panel from July 2021 through the end of 2023. Using survival analysis, we demonstrate that the strongest predictor of business closure is the fact of borrowing funds. During this period, firms employing hired staff exhibited greater resilience. For businesses without hired employees, closures occurred less frequently when the firm was managed by a man, when the services were provided in the trading sector, when they were promoted online.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.