voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-9-103-125voprecotest-5291Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMICSМеры поддержки как дополнительный фактор биржевой стоимости отечественных банковSupport measures as an additional driver of the market value of domestic bankshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2140-3875БанниковаВ. А.BannikovaV. A.

Банникова Виктория Алексеевна, м. н. с. РАНХиГС, н. с. кафедры математических методов анализа экономики экономического факультета  МГУ

Москва

Viktoria A. Bannikova

Moscow

yan.nika.dex@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9575-9794ВиноградоваО. С.VinogradovaО. S.

Виноградова  Ольга  Сергеевна, к. э. н., доцент кафедры финансов и кредита экономического факультета

Москва

Olga S. Vinogradova

Moscow

o.s.vinogradova1@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2274-189XПеникасГ. И.PenikasH. I.

Пеникас Генрих Иозович, д. э. н., руководитель проектов Департамента исследований и прогнозирования

Москва

Henry I. Penikas

Moscow

penikas@gmail.comРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Московский государственный университет имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationМосковский государственный университет имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian FederationБанк РоссииРоссияBank of RussiaRussian Federation20250709202509103125Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5291

События 2022—2023 гг. сформировали условия для изучения квазиестественного эксперимента с целью оценить влияние мер поддержки Банка России на биржевую стоимость акций банков. Общий фон внешних событий воздействовал на всех участников фондового рынка. Однако по отношению к банкам было осуществлено дополнительное воздействие, которого не было для иных компаний, — это меры поддержки банков, принятые в 2022 г. Банком России. Количественная оценка эффектов политики макропруденциального смягчения в России показала, что реализуемые меры стали дополнительным фактором поддержки биржевой стоимости банков. В частности, стоимость акций банков, к которым применялись поддерживающие меры макропруденциальной политики, меньше изменялась. 

The events of 2022—2023 created a setting for a quasi-natural experiment that makes it possible to assess how the Bank of Russia’s support measures influenced the stock-market valuation of banks. While the general external environment affected all participants in the equity market, banks experienced an additional influence not faced by other companies—namely, the support measures introduced by the Bank of Russia in 2022. A quantitative assessment of the effects of Russia’s macroprudential-easing policy shows that these measures acted as an extra factor supporting banks’ market value. Specifically, the share prices of banks covered by the supportive macroprudential policy changed less than those of other firms.

макропруденциальная политикакоммерческие банкиквазиестественный экспериментметод разность разностейmacroprudential policycommercial banksquasi-natural experimentdifference-in-differences methodReferencesАникеев К., Грищенко В. (2023). Экономика и финансовый сектор России в условиях структурной трансформации: обзор совместного семинара Банка России, РЭШ и НИУ «Высшая школа экономики» // Деньги и кредит. № 4. С. 126—144.Anikeev K., Grishchenko V. (2023). Russian real economy and financial sector under the structural transformation: Review of the Bank of Russia, NES, and HSE University workshop. Russian Journal of Money and Finance, No. 4, pp. 126—144. (In Russian).Банк России (2024). Доклад об антикризисных мерах Банка России.Bank of Russia (2024). Report on the Bank of Russia’s anti-crisis measures.Баграмян С. (2023). Влияние поддержки Международного валютного фонда на темпы роста ВВП // Финансы и бизнес. Т. 19, № 1. С. 16—40.Bagramyan S. (2023). The impact of IMF support on GDP growth rates. Finance and Business, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 16—40. (In Russian).Банникова В., Колесник С. (2025). Оценка предсказуемости изменений рыночных процентных ставок в дни публикации пресс-релизов Банка России // Прикладная эконометрика. Т. 77. С. 25—45.Bannikova V., Kolesnik S. (2025). Assessing the predictability of market interest rate changes on the days of Bank of Russia press releases. Applied Econometrics, Vol. 77, pp. 25—45. (In Russian).Головань С. В. (2024). Эконометрические модели для анализа эффективности экономических агентов. Дисс. ... канд. экон. наук. М.: НИУ ВШЭ.Golovan S. V. (2024). Econometric models for analyzing the efficiency of economic agents. PhD Thesis. Moscow: HSE University. (In Russian).Джагитян Э. П., Алексеева М. Г. (2024). Влияние макропруденциальной политики на риски банковских холдинговых компаний США // Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. № 2. С. 168—191. https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2024_2_168-191Dzhagityan E. P., Alekseeva M. G. (2024). The impact of macroprudential policy on the risks of US bank holding companies. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 2, pp. 168—191. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2024_2_168-191Adrian T., de Fontnouvelle P., Yang E., Zlate A. (2017). Macroprudential policy: A case study from a tabletop exercise. Economic Policy Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 1—30.Adrian T., de Fontnouvelle P., Yang E., Zlate A. (2017). Macroprudential policy: A case study from a tabletop exercise. Economic Policy Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 1—30.Behn M., Haselmann R., Wachtel P. (2016). Procyclical capital regulation, lending. Journal of Finance, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 919—956. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12364Behn M., Haselmann R., Wachtel P. (2016). Procyclical capital regulation, lending. Journal of Finance, Vol. 71, No. 2, pp. 919—956. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12364Behncke S. (2023). Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending, credit risks. Journal of Financial Services Research, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 175—199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-022-00378-zBehncke S. (2023). Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending, credit risks. Journal of Financial Services Research, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 175—199. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-022-00378-zBIS (2020). Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data. BIS Papers, No. 110.BIS (2020). Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data. BIS Papers, No. 110.Bruno V., Shim I., Shin H. S. (2017). Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 28, pp. 183—202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.12.001Bruno V., Shim I., Shin H. S. (2017). Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 28, pp. 183—202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.12.001Budnik K. B. (2020). The effect of macroprudential policies on credit developments in Europe 1995—2017. ECB Working Paper, No. 2462. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682506Budnik K. B. (2020). The effect of macroprudential policies on credit developments in Europe 1995—2017. ECB Working Paper, No. 2462. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682506Bush G., Gómez T., Jara A., Moreno D., Styrin K., Ushakova Y. (2021). Macroprudential policy, the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile, Mexico, Russia. Review of International Economics, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 37—60. https:// doi.org/10.1111/roie.12503Bush G., Gómez T., Jara A., Moreno D., Styrin K., Ushakova Y. (2021). Macroprudential policy, the inward transmission of monetary policy: The case of Chile, Mexico, Russia. Review of International Economics, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 37—60. https:// doi.org/10.1111/roie.12503Cerutti E., Claessens S., Laeven L. (2017). The use, effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 28, pp. 203—224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.10.004Cerutti E., Claessens S., Laeven L. (2017). The use, effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence. Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 28, pp. 203—224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.10.004Colwell R. J., Davis E. P. (1992). Output, productivity in banking. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 94, pp. S111—S129. https://doi.org/10.2307/3440252Colwell R. J., Davis E. P. (1992). Output, productivity in banking. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 94, pp. S111—S129. https://doi.org/10.2307/3440252Deng X., Gao L., Kim J.-B. (2020). Short-sale constraints, stock price crash risk: Causal evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 60, article 101498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101498Deng X., Gao L., Kim J.-B. (2020). Short-sale constraints, stock price crash risk: Causal evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 60, article 101498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101498Fiordelisi F. (2002). Shareholder value, the clash in performance measurement: Are banks special? Working Paper, University of Wales Bangor.Fiordelisi F. (2002). Shareholder value, the clash in performance measurement: Are banks special? Working Paper, University of Wales Bangor.Fiordelisi F., Molyneux P. (2010). The determinants of shareholder value in European banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 1189—1200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.024Fiordelisi F., Molyneux P. (2010). The determinants of shareholder value in European banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 1189—1200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.024Gambacorta L., Murcia A. (2020). The impact of macroprudential policies in Latin America: An empirical analysis using credit registry data. Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 42, article 100828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2019.100828Gambacorta L., Murcia A. (2020). The impact of macroprudential policies in Latin America: An empirical analysis using credit registry data. Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 42, article 100828. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2019.100828Gertler M., Kiyotaki N., Prestipino A. (2020). Banking panics as endogenous disasters, the welfare gains from macroprudential policy. In: AEA Papers, Proceedings, Vol. 110, pp. 463—469. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201022Gertler M., Kiyotaki N., Prestipino A. (2020). Banking panics as endogenous disasters, the welfare gains from macroprudential policy. In: AEA Papers, Proceedings, Vol. 110, pp. 463—469. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201022Gordy M. B., Howells B. (2006). Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient? Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 395—417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2005.12.002Gordy M. B., Howells B. (2006). Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient? Journal of Financial Intermediation, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 395—417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2005.12.002Gross S. (2007). Banks, shareholder value: An overview of bank valuation, empirical evidence on shareholder value for banks. Frankfurt am Main: Druck und Verlagshaus.Gross S. (2007). Banks, shareholder value: An overview of bank valuation, empirical evidence on shareholder value for banks. Frankfurt am Main: Druck und Verlagshaus.Hayek F. A. (1974). The pretence of knowledge. Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 11.Hayek F. A. (1974). The pretence of knowledge. Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 11.Kim S., Oh J. (2020). Macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policies: Evidence from LTV, DTI policies in Korea. Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 53, article 100997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2020.100997Kim S., Oh J. (2020). Macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policies: Evidence from LTV, DTI policies in Korea. Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 53, article 100997. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2020.100997Lee M., Asuncion R. C., Kim J. (2016). Effectiveness of macroprudential policies in developing Asia: An empirical analysis. Emerging Markets Finance, Trade, Vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 923—937. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1103137Lee M., Asuncion R. C., Kim J. (2016). Effectiveness of macroprudential policies in developing Asia: An empirical analysis. Emerging Markets Finance, Trade, Vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 923—937. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1103137Linton O. (2019). Financial econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316819302Linton O. (2019). Financial econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316819302Lymar M., Penikas H. (2025). Effectiveness of micro- and macroprudential measures in 2014—2022 in Russia: Endogenous treatment effects estimation. Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 168—196. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.11.144107Lymar M., Penikas H. (2025). Effectiveness of micro- and macroprudential measures in 2014—2022 in Russia: Endogenous treatment effects estimation. Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 168—196. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.11.144107Marín-Rodríguez N. J., González-Ruiz J. D., Botero Botero S. (2022). Dynamic co-movements among oil prices, financial assets: A scientometric analysis. Sustainability, Vol. 14, No. 19, article 12796. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912796.Marín-Rodríguez N. J., González-Ruiz J. D., Botero Botero S. (2022). Dynamic co-movements among oil prices, financial assets: A scientometric analysis. Sustainability, Vol. 14, No. 19, article 12796. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912796.Morck R., Yeung B., Yu W. (2000). The information content of stock markets: Why do emerging markets have synchronous stock price movements? Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58, No. 1—2, pp. 215—260. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00071-4Morck R., Yeung B., Yu W. (2000). The information content of stock markets: Why do emerging markets have synchronous stock price movements? Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58, No. 1—2, pp. 215—260. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00071-4Morozov M., Danilova E. (2017). The macroprudential policy framework in Russia. BIS Paper, No. 94.Morozov M., Danilova E. (2017). The macroprudential policy framework in Russia. BIS Paper, No. 94.Radić N. (2015). Shareholder value creation in Japanese banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 52, pp. 199—207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.014Radić N. (2015). Shareholder value creation in Japanese banking. Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 52, pp. 199—207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.09.014Roll R. (1988). The international crash of October 1987. Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 19—35. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v44.n5.19Roll R. (1988). The international crash of October 1987. Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 19—35. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v44.n5.19Rubio M., Unsal D. F. (2020). Macroprudential policy under incomplete information. European Journal of Finance, Vol. 26, No. 7—8, pp. 616—639. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2019.1679209Rubio M., Unsal D. F. (2020). Macroprudential policy under incomplete information. European Journal of Finance, Vol. 26, No. 7—8, pp. 616—639. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2019.1679209Segev N., Schaffer M. (2020). Monetary policy, bank competition, regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 64, article 101494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101494Segev N., Schaffer M. (2020). Monetary policy, bank competition, regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 64, article 101494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2019.101494Shan J., Zhang L., Wang J. (2025). Data elements, corporate stock dividends: A quasinatural experiment based on government data openness. International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 97, article 103846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103846Shan J., Zhang L., Wang J. (2025). Data elements, corporate stock dividends: A quasinatural experiment based on government data openness. International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 97, article 103846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103846Sinn W., Dayal R., Pitman D. (2003). Creating value in banking. BCG Report, The Boston Consulting Group.Sinn W., Dayal R., Pitman D. (2003). Creating value in banking. BCG Report, The Boston Consulting Group.Sinn W., Dayal R., Pitman D. (2004). Winners in the age of titans, creating value in banking. BCG Report, The Boston Consulting Group.Sinn W., Dayal R., Pitman D. (2004). Winners in the age of titans, creating value in banking. BCG Report, The Boston Consulting Group.Tintner G. (1940). The variate difference method (Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, Monograph No. 5). Bloomington: Principia Press.Tintner G. (1940). The variate difference method (Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, Monograph No. 5). Bloomington: Principia Press.von Anderson O. (1914). Nochmals über “The elimination of spurious correlation due to position in time or space”. Biometrika, Vol. 10, No. 2/3, pp. 269—279. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331784von Anderson O. (1914). Nochmals über “The elimination of spurious correlation due to position in time or space”. Biometrika, Vol. 10, No. 2/3, pp. 269—279. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331784von Anderson O. (1923). Über ein neues Verfahren bei Anwendung der “VariateDifference”-Methode. Biometrika, Vol. 15, No. 1/2, pp. 134—149. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331894von Anderson O. (1923). Über ein neues Verfahren bei Anwendung der “VariateDifference”-Methode. Biometrika, Vol. 15, No. 1/2, pp. 134—149. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331894Yang J. Y., Suh H. (2023). Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage, value. International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 86, article 102554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102554Yang J. Y., Suh H. (2023). Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage, value. International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 86, article 102554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102554

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.