voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-6-22-41voprecotest-5278Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSТеоретико-игровой анализ мировой экономической системы с доминирующим эмитентом валютыGame-theoretic analysis of the global economic system with a dominant currency issuerhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3686-9053ГеворгянР. А.GevorgyanR. A.

Геворгян Рубен Альбертович, к. ф.-м. н., д. э. н., проф. кафедры математических моделей в экономике факультета экономики и управления 

Ереван

Ruben A. Gevorgyan

Yerevan

rubengevorgyan@ysu.amhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-0867-8438ГеворгянГ. К.GevorgyanG. K.

Геворгян Гаяне Карленовна, лаборант бизнес-инкубатора 

Ереван

Gayane K. Gevorgyan

Yerevan

gayane.gevorgyan@ysu.amЕреванский государственный университетАрменияYerevan State UniversityArmenia202507062025062241Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5278

Рассматривается глобальная экономическая системa, в которой доминирует один эмитент валюты. С использованием теории игр моделируется взаимодействие доминирующего эмитента валюты, независимых и союзных с доминирующим эмитентом стран. Анализ показывает, что такая система приводит к асимметрии власти, к стимулам для избыточной эмиссии и рискам системной нестабильности. Определяются стратегии равновесия и рассматриваются условия, при которых альянсы могут меняться. Исследованы условия существования различных равновесий в международной валютной системе, а также факторы дедолларизации и перехода к многополярному валютному миру. Полученные результаты объясняют особенности глобальных финансовых систем, теоретические обоснования политики глобализации и доминирования валюты одной страны, a также риски такой политики. Показано, что возможны два равновесных состояния, одно из которых неустойчивое. Результатом последнего может стать обрушение существующей мировой финансовой системы, достижение такого равновесия возможно только за счет реализации серьезных геополитических рисков.

The article examines a global economic system in which a single country acts as the dominant issuer of the reserve currency. Employing game-theoretic modelling, it investigates the strategic interaction among the dominant issuer, independent states, and states allied with the issuer. The model reveals pronounced power asymmetries, incentives for excessive monetary issuance, and heightened risks of systemic instability. Equilibrium strategies are derived, and the conditions under which alliances may reconfigure are characterized. The analysis identifies the parameter ranges that sustain alternative equilibria within the international monetary regime and discusses the forces driving de-dollarization and possible transition to a multipolar currency order. The findings illuminate salient features of the contemporary global financial architecture, furnish theoretical rationales for policies that underpin globalization and single-currency domination, and expose the attendant systemic risks. The framework admits two equilibrium configurations, one of which is inherently unstable. Attaining this unstable equilibrium — possible only through the materialisation of major geopolitical shocks — could culminate in the collapse of the existing international monetary system.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.