voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2013-4-49-67voprecotest-527Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ ТЕОРИИISSUES OF THEORYЗакончен ли экономический рост? Шесть препятствий для инновационного развития (на примере США)Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?faltering innovation Confronts the Six headwindsГордонР. Д.GordonR. J.

проф.

rjg@northwestern.eduСеверо-Западный университет (Эванстон, США)Соединённые Штаты АмерикиDepartment of Economics, Northwestern University (Evanston, USA)United States201320042013044967Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20132013Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/527

В статье рассматривается центральная тема экономической науки: каким образом происходит рост экономики? Под сомнение ставится ставшее почти аксиомой утверждение, выдвинутое Солоу в 1950-х годах, что экономический рост — это поступательный процесс, который будет продолжаться всегда. До 1750 г. экономика фактически не росла, поэтому нет никакой гарантии, что в дальнейшем рост будет столь же поступательным, как и в последние столетия. Наоборот, можно предположить, что экономический скачок последних 250 лет — это уникальный случай в истории. Предположения о будущем развитии основаны на данных до 2007 г., когда экономический кризис еще не наступил.

This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history. The paper views the future from 2007 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.