voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-2-39-65voprecotest-5185Research ArticleМИКРОЭКОНОМИКАMICROECONOMICSДефицит квалифицированных рабочих в обрабатывающей промышленности: следствие неэффективности фирм или препятствие для роста эффективных?Shortage of skilled workforce in manufacturing: A consequence of firms ineffectiveness or an obstacle for the growth of effective firms?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5034-9345ГоликоваВ. В.GolikovaV. V.

Голикова Виктория Владимировна, к.э.н., вед.н.с. Институтаанализа предприятий и рынков (ИАПР)

Москва

Moscow

victoria@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-8659-3797МуковнинС. К.MukovninS. K.

Муковнин Сергей Константинович, стажер-исследователь ИАПР

Москва

Moscow

smukovnin@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0091-5388КазунА. П.KazunA. P.

Казун Антон Павлович,  к.социол.н., директор ИАПР

Москва

Moscow

kazun.anton@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0185-4182ЕршоваН. В.ErshovaN. V.

Ершова Нина Владимировна, к.э.н., вед.н.с. Международного центра изучения институтов и развития

Москва

Moscow

nershova@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202501022025023965Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5185

В статье анализируется, какие промышленные предприятия в России чаще испытывают дефицит квалифицированных рабочих кадров – эффективные растущие фирмы или неконкурентоспособные предприятия. Регрессионный анализ данных опроса 1860 российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности, проведенного в 2022 году, показал, что дефицит квалифицированных рабочих чаще испытывают растущие и эффективные предприятия, а также компании, интегрированные в глобальную экономику. При этом компании с более высоким технологическим уровнем организации производственного процесса реже испытывают нехватку кадров этого уровня. На сегодняшний день дефицит квалифицированного рабочего персонала становится объективной проблемой российской обрабатывающей промышленности, и фактором, препятствующим росту и развитию конкурентоспособных предприятий. Дополнительно          результаты исследования проиллюстрированы материалами из 12 экспертных интервью с руководителями предприятий. Возможным ключом к решению проблемы дефицита кадров может стать интенсивная модель роста предприятий, основывающаяся на инновациях и высоком технологическом уровне организации производства и труда с развитием автоматизации производства, сокращающей потребность в человеческих ресурсах.

The paper analyzes which manufacturing firms in Russia face shortage of skilled workforce more often — effective growing firms or non-competitive enterprises. The regression analysis of the survey data of 1860 Russian manufacturing firms conducted in 2022 showed that growing and effective firms, as well as firms integrated into the global economy, face skilled labour shortage more often. At the same time, firms with higher technological level of production are more effective in solving skilled workforce shortage problems. The shortage of qualified personnel seems to be not a subjective but a real problem of Russian manufacturing firms and an obstacle to the growth and development of competitive enterprises. Additionally, the results are illustrated with materials from 12 expert interviews with enterprise managers. A potential key to addressing the workforce shortage could be an intensive growth model for enterprises based on innovations and a high level of technological organization in production and labour, with the development of production automation that reduces the need for human resources.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.