voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2025-4-112-135voprecotest-5160Research ArticleРЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАREGIONAL ECONOMYРегиональная инфляция и возрастная структура населения: взгляд сквозь призму пространственно-временного подходаRegional inflation and the age structure of the population: a view through the prism of a space-time approachhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8973-542XТерещенкоД. С.TereshchenkoD. S.

Терещенко Дмитрий Сергеевич, ст. преподаватель департамента экономики Санкт-Петербургской школы экономики и менеджмента, м. н. с. Центра теории рынков и пространственной экономики

Санкт-Петербург

Dmitrii S. Tereshchenko

St. Petersburg

dtereshchenko@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5132-7423ЩербаковВ. С.ShcherbakovV. S.

Щербаков Василий Сергеевич, к. э. н., начальник экономического отдела Отделения по Омской области Сибирского главного управления; доцент факультета экономики, психологии и менеджмента

Омск

Vasilii S. Shcherbakov

Omsk

shcherbakovvs@mail.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationБанк России; Омский государственный университет имени Ф. М. ДостоевскогоРоссияBank of Russia; Dostoevsky Omsk State UniversityRussian Federation20250204202504112135Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20252025Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5160

Рассматривается влияние возрастной структуры населения на региональную инфляцию в Российской Федерации. Определен характер влияния (проинфляционный или дефляционный) всех групп населения (моложе трудоспособного возраста, трудоспособного возраста, старше трудоспособного возраста). Использованы динамический и пространственно-эконометрический подходы к моделированию инфляции в контексте демографических процессов. Исследование проводилось для 79 регионов России на двух подвыборках (2003—2014 гг. и 2015—2021 гг.). Это позволяет учесть эффект от реализации режима таргетирования инфляции, который был введен с 2015 г. Установлено, что влияние населения младше трудоспособного возраста имеет дефляционный характер, а старше трудоспособного возраста — инфляционный. По группе трудоспособного возраста статистически значимых результатов не получено.

The article focuses on studying the specifics of the influence of the age structure of the population on regional inflation in the territory of the Russian Federation. The main research issue is to identify the nature of the influence (proinflationary or disinflationary) of all population groups (younger than working age, working age, older than working age). A distinctive feature of the work is the simultaneous use of a dynamic and spatial econometric approaches to modeling inflation in the context of demographic processes. The study is conducted for 79 regions of Russia in two subsamples (2003—2014 and 2015—2021). This allows us to take into account the effect of the implementation of the inflation targeting regime, which has been implemented as part of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy since 2015. As a result of the analysis, it has been found that the population younger than the working age has a disinflationary character, and older than the working age has an inflationary character. No statistically significant results are found for the working age group.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.