voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-11-53-75voprecotest-5088Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSЭкспорт России в условиях геополитической нестабильности: случай физических и переходных климатических рисковRussian exports amid geopolitical instability: The case of physical and transitional climate riskshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5991-3061СоколоваЮ. Д.SokolovaY. D.

Соколова Юлия Дмитриевна, инженер-исследователь лаборатории экономической политики и природных ресурсов, ассистент и аспирант кафедры экономики

Екатеринбург

iu.d.sokolova@urfu.ruУральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. ЕльцинаРоссияUral Federal University named after the First President of Russia B. N. YeltsinRussian Federation2024051120240115375Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5088

Анализируется влияние физических и переходных климатических рисков в мире на российский экспорт. Для моделирования зависимости использовалась гравитационная модель международной торговли с помощью метода псевдомаксимального правдоподобия Пуассона на основе данных об экспортных потоках России в 72 страныза 2010—2021 гг. Было выявлено, что климатические изменения и амбиции государств — торговых партнеров по переходу к низкоуглеродному развитию определяют динамику российского экспорта. В частности, национальные физические климатические риски отрицательно влияют на экспорт РФ, что связано с разрушением инфраструктуры, потерей части капитала, снижением качества и доступности природных ресурсов, нарастанием социальной напряженности. В то же время экстремальные климатические явления и меры по борьбе с изменением климата в странах — торговых партнерах способствуют росту российского экспорта. Благодаря первым повышается спрос на ключевые товары российского экспорта для целей восстановления экономики, благодаря вторым расширяются возможности наращивания российского экспорта — энергетической и минеральной продукции, а также технологий, используемых в альтернативной энергетике и при электрификации транспорта

The paper examines the impact of physical and transitional climate risks, which to some extend shape the geopolitical situation in the world, on Russian exports. The gravity model of international trade was employed to model the existing relationship. Estimation of the gravity equation by means of the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method using data on Russian export flows to 72 countries over the period 2010—2021 revealed that climate change and the ambitions of trading partner states towards low-carbon development determine the dynamics of Russian exports. In particular, national physical climate risks have a detrimental impact on Russia’s exports due to the destruction of infrastructure, loss of capital, reduced quality and availability of natural resources, and increased social tensions. Extreme climatic events and climate change measures in trading partner countries spur the development of Russian exports. Namely, physical climate risks of importing countries may increase the demand for key Russian goods for economic recovery purposes. Changes during the transition to a low-carbon economy in trading partner countries also generate opportunities for Russian export growth due to the country’s role as a major supplier of energy and mineral products, as well as technologies for the alternative energy production and electrification of transport

физические климатические рискипереходные климатические рискигеополитические рискиэкспортРоссиягравитационная модель международной торговлиphysical climate riskstransitional climate risksgeopolitical risksexportsRussiagravity model of international tradeИсследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Министерства науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации в рамках Программы развития Уральского федерального университета имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина в соответствии с программой стратегического академического лидерства «Приоритет-2030»This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Ural Federal University Program of Development within the Priority-2030 Program).ReferencesБанк России (2020). Влияние климатических рисков и устойчивое развитие финансового сектора Российской Федерации. Доклад для общественных консультаций. Москва.Bank of Russia (2020). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.