voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2012-12-84-97voprecotest-489Research ArticleМИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И ФИНАНСОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКАGLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL POLICYПерспективы рубля как региональной резервной валюты: теоретический аспектCauses and Consequences of the Crisis in the EurozoneНаркевичС. С.NarkevichS.

научный сотрудник Института экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Москва)

narkevich@iet.ruТрунинП. В.TruninP.

к. э. н., завлабораторией денежно-кредитной политики Института экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара

pt@iet.ruИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара (Москва)РоссияGaidar Institute for the Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation2012201220120128497Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20122012Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/489

Обсуждение роли резервных валют в мировой экономике в последние годы вышло на новый уровень. Проблемы, возникающие в связи с доминированием одной резервной валюты, пока не решены, и неясно, когда и как это удастся сделать в будущем. Анализ нередко осуществляется без достаточного теоретического обоснования разных вариантов. В данной статье представлены более строгие аргументы в защиту концепции региональной резервной валюты, рассмотрены факторы формирования резервных валют и предложены оценки потенциала российского рубля в качестве региональной резервной валюты.

In recent years the discussion of the role played by reserve currencies in the world economy has reached a new level. Problems caused by the domination of the single reserve currency have not yet been resolved and it remains unclear when and how they will be solved in the future. At the same time quite often the discussion doesn’t include theoretical foundations of different alternatives. In this article we try to develop a strict foundation of the regional reserve currency concept, present theoretical arguments for the factors of reserve currencies’ formation and estimate the potential of the Russian ruble as a regional reserve currency.

глобальные дисбалансымировая валютная системарезервные валютырегиональные резервные валютыglobal imbalancesinternational monetary systemreserve currenciesregional reserve currenciesReferencesМоисеев С. (2008). Рубль как резервная валюта // Вопросы экономики. № 9.Moiseev S. (2008). Rouble as a Reserve Currency // Voprosy Ekonomiki. No 9.Arellano C., Heathcote J. (2007). Dollarization and Financial Integration // International Finance Discussion Paper. No 890 / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Arellano C., Heathcote J. (2007). Dollarization and Financial Integration // International Finance Discussion Paper. No 890 / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Bachetta P., Wincoop E. van (2002). A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade // International Finance Discussion Paper. No 747.Bachetta P., Wincoop E. van (2002). A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade // International Finance Discussion Paper. No 747.Beck R., Rahbari E. (2008). Optimal Reserve Composition in the Presence of Sudden Stops: The Euro and the Dollar as Safe Haven Currencies // ECB Working Paper. No 916.Beck R., Rahbari E. (2008). Optimal Reserve Composition in the Presence of Sudden Stops: The Euro and the Dollar as Safe Haven Currencies // ECB Working Paper. No 916.Bordo M. D., James H. (2011). Reserves and Baskets // NBER Working Paper. No 17492.Bordo M. D., James H. (2011). Reserves and Baskets // NBER Working Paper. No 17492.Chang R., Velasco A. (2002). Dollarization: Analytical Issues // NBER Working Paper. No 8838.Chang R., Velasco A. (2002). Dollarization: Analytical Issues // NBER Working Paper. No 8838.Chinn M., Frankel J. (2008). The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency // NBER Working Paper. No 13909.Chinn M., Frankel J. (2008). The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency // NBER Working Paper. No 13909.Cohen B. J. (1971). The Future of Sterling as an International Currency. L.: Macmillan.Cohen B. J. (1971). The Future of Sterling as an International Currency. L.: Macmillan.Dobson W., Masson P. R. (2009). Will the Renminbi Become a World Currency? // China Economic Review. Vol. 20, No 1. P. 124—135.Dobson W., Masson P. R. (2009). Will the Renminbi Become a World Currency? // China Economic Review. Vol. 20, No 1. P. 124—135.Donnenfeld S., Zilcha I. (1991). Pricing of Exports and Exchange Rate Uncertainty // International Economic Review. Vol. 32, No 4. P. 1009—1022.Donnenfeld S., Zilcha I. (1991). Pricing of Exports and Exchange Rate Uncertainty // International Economic Review. Vol. 32, No 4. P. 1009—1022.Eichengreen B. (2011). Exorbitant Privilege. The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Eichengreen B. (2011). Exorbitant Privilege. The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Frankel J. A. (1995). Reports of the Dollar’s Demise are Greatly Exaggerated. Berkeley: University of California.Frankel J. A. (1995). Reports of the Dollar’s Demise are Greatly Exaggerated. Berkeley: University of California.Genberg H. (2009). Currency Internationalisation: Analytical and Policy Issues / Bank for International Settlements.Genberg H. (2009). Currency Internationalisation: Analytical and Policy Issues / Bank for International Settlements.Goldberg L. S., Tille C. (2005). The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment // NBER Working Paper. No 11127.Goldberg L. S., Tille C. (2005). The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment // NBER Working Paper. No 11127.Grandes M., Peter M., Pinaud N. (2003). The Currency Premium and Local‑Currency Denominated Debt Costs in South Africa // OECD Working Paper. No 230.Grandes M., Peter M., Pinaud N. (2003). The Currency Premium and Local‑Currency Denominated Debt Costs in South Africa // OECD Working Paper. No 230.Habib M. M., Joy M. (2008). Foreign‑currency Bonds: Currency Choice and the Role of Uncovered and Covered Interest Parity // ECB Working Paper. No 947.Habib M. M., Joy M. (2008). Foreign‑currency Bonds: Currency Choice and the Role of Uncovered and Covered Interest Parity // ECB Working Paper. No 947.Heller H. R. (1968). The Transactions Demand for International Means of Payments // The Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 76, No. 1. P. 141—145.Heller H. R. (1968). The Transactions Demand for International Means of Payments // The Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 76, No. 1. P. 141—145.Horii A. (1986). The Evolution of Reserve Currency Diversification // BIS Economic Paper. No 18.Horii A. (1986). The Evolution of Reserve Currency Diversification // BIS Economic Paper. No 18.IMF (2011). Enhancing International Monetary Stability — A Role for the SDR? Washington, D.C.IMF (2011). Enhancing International Monetary Stability — A Role for the SDR? Washington, D.C.Jevons W. S. (1875). Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. N.Y.: D. Appleton and Co.Jevons W. S. (1875). Money and the Mechanism of Exchange. N.Y.: D. Appleton and Co.Katz M. L., Shapiro C. (1985). Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility // American Economic Review. Vol. 75, No 3. P. 424—440.Katz M. L., Shapiro C. (1985). Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility // American Economic Review. Vol. 75, No 3. P. 424—440.Kenen P. B. (1983). The Role of the Dollar as an International Currency. N.Y.: Group of Thirty.Kenen P. B. (1983). The Role of the Dollar as an International Currency. N.Y.: Group of Thirty.Kiyotaki N., Wright R. (1989). On Money as a Medium of Exchange // Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 97, No 4. P. 927—954.Kiyotaki N., Wright R. (1989). On Money as a Medium of Exchange // Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 97, No 4. P. 927—954.Kiyotaki N., Wright R. (1993). A Search‑Theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics // American Economic Review. Vol. 83, No 1. P. 63—77.Kiyotaki N., Wright R. (1993). A Search‑Theoretic Approach to Monetary Economics // American Economic Review. Vol. 83, No 1. P. 63—77.Krugman P. (1980). Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange // Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Vol. 12, No 3. P. 513—526.Krugman P. (1980). Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange // Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Vol. 12, No 3. P. 513—526.Lagos R., Wright R. (2004). A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis // Research Department Staff Report No 346 / Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.Lagos R., Wright R. (2004). A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis // Research Department Staff Report No 346 / Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.Markowitz H. (1952). Portfolio Selection // The Journal of Finance. Vol. 7, No 1. P. 77—91.Markowitz H. (1952). Portfolio Selection // The Journal of Finance. Vol. 7, No 1. P. 77—91.Mendoza E. G. (2000). On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy is not Credible and Financial Markets Are Imperfect // NBER Working Paper. No 7824.Mendoza E. G. (2000). On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy is not Credible and Financial Markets Are Imperfect // NBER Working Paper. No 7824.Papaioannou E., Portes R., Siourounis G. (2006). Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar // NBER Working Paper. No 12333.Papaioannou E., Portes R., Siourounis G. (2006). Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar // NBER Working Paper. No 12333.Prasad E., Ye L. (2012). Will the Renminbi Rule? // Finance and Development. Vol. 49, No 1. P. 26—29.Prasad E., Ye L. (2012). Will the Renminbi Rule? // Finance and Development. Vol. 49, No 1. P. 26—29.Ramaswamy S. (1999). Reserve Currency Allocation: an Alternative Methodology // BIS Working Paper. No 72.Ramaswamy S. (1999). Reserve Currency Allocation: an Alternative Methodology // BIS Working Paper. No 72.Rey H. (2001). International Trade and Currency Exchange // Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 68, No 2. P. 443—464.Rey H. (2001). International Trade and Currency Exchange // Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 68, No 2. P. 443—464.Salikhov M., Agibalov S. (2010). The Rouble as the Settlement Currency of the CIS // Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 / Eurasian Development Bank. Almaty.Salikhov M., Agibalov S. (2010). The Rouble as the Settlement Currency of the CIS // Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2010 / Eurasian Development Bank. Almaty.Siegfried N., Semeonova E., Vespro C. (2007). Choice of Currency in Bond Issuance and the International Role of Currencies // ECB Working Paper. No 814.Siegfried N., Semeonova E., Vespro C. (2007). Choice of Currency in Bond Issuance and the International Role of Currencies // ECB Working Paper. No 814.Smaghi L. B. (2011a). The Reform of the International Monetary System / Speech at the Conference in memory of Tommaso Padoa‑Schioppa. Rome, Dec. 16.Smaghi L. B. (2011a). The Reform of the International Monetary System / Speech at the Conference in memory of Tommaso Padoa‑Schioppa. Rome, Dec. 16.Smaghi L. B. (2011b). The Triffin Dilemma Revisited / Speech at the Conference on the International Monetary System. Brussels, Oct. 3.Smaghi L. B. (2011b). The Triffin Dilemma Revisited / Speech at the Conference on the International Monetary System. Brussels, Oct. 3.Trairatvorakul P. (2011). Towards a Multi‑Polar Currency and Reserve System / Speech at the High‑Level Conference on the International Monetary System.Trairatvorakul P. (2011). Towards a Multi‑Polar Currency and Reserve System / Speech at the High‑Level Conference on the International Monetary System.Zurich, May. Truman E. M. (2010). The International Monetary System and Global Imbalances / Peterson Institute for International Economics. www.iie.com/publications/papers/ truman0110.pdf.Zurich, May. Truman E. M. (2010). The International Monetary System and Global Imbalances / Peterson Institute for International Economics. www.iie.com/publications/papers/ truman0110.pdf.Truman E. M., Wong A. (2006). The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard // Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper. No 06‑2.Truman E. M., Wong A. (2006). The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard // Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper. No 06‑2.Zhou X. (2009). Reform the International Monetary System. An Essay. Beijing: People’s Bank of China // www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/956/2009/ 20091229104425550619706/20091229104425550619706_.html.Zhou X. (2009). Reform the International Monetary System. An Essay. Beijing: People’s Bank of China // www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/956/2009/20091229104425550619706/20091229104425550619706_.html.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.