voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-7-5-24voprecotest-4825Research ArticleВОПРОСЫ ТЕОРИИISSUES OF THEORYСовременная экономическая теория и стилизованные фактыModern economic theory and stylized factshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5612-3999ДементьевВ. Е.DementievV. E.

Дементьев Виктор Евгеньевич, чл.-корр. РАН, д. э. н., проф., гл. н. с.

Москва

Victor E. Dementiev

Moscow

vedementev@rambler.ruЦентральный экономико-математический институт РАНРоссияCentral Economics and Mathematics InstituteRussian Federation20240807202407524Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4825

Проанализирована роль стилизованных фактов в формировании и в реализации программы научных исследований. Состояние современной экономической теории рассматривается с позиций использования обобщения как одного из основных методов научного познания. Выделены три потенциальных источника слабости теоретических исследований: недостаточное внимание к стилизованным фактам, дефицит таких фактов, игнорирование возможностей ослабить этот дефицит. Недостаточное внимание иллюстрируется, в частности, на примере макроэкономического описания технологического обновления производства. Даже продвинутые модели макроэкономической динамики, как правило, игнорируют существование периода одновременного развития старых и новых технологий, в течение которого используемые новые технологии еще уступают по своим характеристикам старым. В условиях перехода к цифровым технологиям особенно важно учитывать эффекты масштаба, характерные для этих технологий, но не принимаемые во внимание в новом неоклассическом синтезе. Современные цифровые технологии открывают перспективы формирования «квазистилизованных» фактов с помощью моделей, способных за короткое время имитировать длительный опыт экономического развития. Своеобразию стилизованных фактов для разных периодов отвечает использование специализированных теорий для отдельных этапов экономического развития.

The article is devoted to the role of stylized facts in the formation and implementation of a research program. The state of modern economic theory is considered from the standpoint of using the generalization method as one of the main methods of scientific knowledge. Three potential sources of weakness in theoretical research have been identified: insufficient attention to stylized facts, a shortage of such facts themselves, and ignoring the possibilities of reducing this deficit. Insufficient attention is illustrated, in particular, by the example of a macroeconomic description of technological renewal of production. Even advanced models of macroeconomic dynamics tend to ignore the existence of a period of simultaneous development of old and new technologies, during which the new ones used are still inferior in their characteristics to the old technologies. In the context of the transition to digital technologies, it becomes especially important to take into account the effects of scale characteristic of these technologies, but they are not taken into account in the new neoclassical synthesis. Modern digital technologies open up prospects for the formation of “quasi-stylized” facts with the help of models capable of simulating long-term experience of economic development in a short time. The peculiarity of stylized facts for different time periods is due to the use of specialized theories for individual stages of economic development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.