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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">voprecotest</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вопросы экономики</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Voprosy Ekonomiki</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0042-8736</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32609/0042-8736-2024-11-120-147</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">voprecotest-4821</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ИСТОРИЯ И ИСТОРИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ МЫСЛИ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ECONOMIC HISTORY AND HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Юность эконометрики: кейнсианцы contra Кейнс</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Youth of econometrics: Keynesians contra Keynes</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2312-2110</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Капелюшников</surname><given-names>Р. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kapeliushniko</surname><given-names>R. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Капелюшников Ростислав Исаакович, чл.-корр. РАН, д. э. н., гл. н. с., замдиректора Центра трудовых исследований</p><p>Москва</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">rostis@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений имени Е. М. Примакова РАН;  Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS; HSE University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>05</day><month>11</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>11</issue><fpage>120</fpage><lpage>147</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4821">https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4821</self-uri><abstract><p>История экономической мысли знает немало острых методологических споров (Methodenstreit), самым знаменитым из которых можно считать интеллектуальную схватку в конце XIX в. между представителями австрийской и новой исторической школ по вопросу о методах социальных наук. Уже в XX в. на рубеже 1930—1940-х годов не менее жесткий спор возник между Дж. М. Кейнсом и кейнсианцами, радикально разошедшимися в оценке возможностей и перспектив новой субдисциплины — эконометрики. В литературе этот эпизод известен как «дебаты Кейнс—Тинберген», поскольку обсуждение было сфокусировано на книге Тинбергена «Статистическое тестирование теорий делового цикла», где была предложена эконометрическая модель, параметры которой оценивались с помощью метода множественной корреляции. Кейнс выступил с резкой критикой подхода Тинбергена (и шире — всей эконометрики). Долгое время проигравшей стороной в этом споре однозначно признавался Кейнс, которого кейнсианцы обвиняли в некомпетентности. Однако последующее развитие эконометрики оказалось во многом сосредоточено на проблемах, поставленных Кейнсом</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The history of economic thought knows a few of heated methodological controversies (Methodenstreit), the most famous of which was a “battle” at the end of the 19th century between Austrian and New historical schools on proper methods of social sciences. Later at the turn of the 1930—1940s a dispute arose between J. M. Keynes, on the one hand, and Keynesians (J. Tinbergen, O. Lange, J. Marshak, etc.), on the other hand, who radically diverged in assessing prospects of a new subdiscipline — econometrics. In the literature, this episode is known as the “Keynes—Tinbergen debate”, since the discussion was centered on the study by J. Tinbergen “Statistical testing of business cycle theories” (1939), where one of the first large econometric models was offered, the parameters of which were estimated using the method of multiple correlation. Keynes sharply criticized Tinbergen’s approach (and more broadly, the whole econometrics). For a long time, Keynesians unequivocally recognized Keynes as the losing party, whom they accused of technical incompetence. However, the subsequent development of econometrics turned out to be largely focused precisely on the problems raised by Keynes.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Кейнс</kwd><kwd>Тинберген</kwd><kwd>методология</kwd><kwd>эконометрика</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Keynes—Tinbergen debate</kwd><kwd>methodology</kwd><kwd>business cycles</kwd><kwd>econometrics</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Кейнс Дж. М. 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