voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-5-21-37voprecotest-4683Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОБЩЕСТВЕННОГО СЕКТОРАPUBLIC ECONOMICSОценка ставки дисконтирования для государственных инвестиционных проектов в РоссииEstimating social discount rate for government investment projects in Russiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9939-2654КоссоваТ. В.KossovaT. V.

Коссова Татьяна Владимировна - к. э. н., доцент департамента прикладной экономики НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Tatiana V. Kossova - Associate Professor at Applied Economics Department.

Moscow

tkossova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0729-1731ШелунцоваМ. А.SheluntcovaM.

Шелунцова Мария Александровна - к. э. н., доцент департамента прикладной экономики НИУ ВШЭ.

Москва

Maria A. Sheluntcova - Associate Professor at Applied Economics Department.

Moscow

sheluntsova@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202409052024052137Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4683

Рассматриваются методы определения ставки дисконтирования для инвестиционных проектов, задействующих бюджетные средства и направленных на создание общественных выгод. Общественные выгоды часто не имеют прямого денежного выражения, поэтому методы определения ставки дисконтирования для таких проектов отличаются от рыночных. Расходование бюджетных средств на инвестиционные проекты означает, что общество отказывается от потребления в текущий момент ради будущей отдачи от инвестиций. Ставка дисконтирования должна отражать общественные предпочтения относительно распределения потребления между текущим и будущим периодами. Оценить эти предпочтения позволяет метод социальной ставки межвременных предпочтений. Учесть альтернативную возможность реализации проекта в частном секторе позволяет метод социальной альтернативной стоимости капитала. Проанализировано развитие методов оценки социальной ставки дисконтирования и обсуждаются возможности их применения для России. Обосновано значение социальной ставки межвременных предпочтений 2,5% и значение социальной альтернативной стоимости капитала 4,4—5% для кратко- и среднесрочных государственных инвестиционных проектов в России. Значения ставок оцениваются в реальном выражении.

The article explores methods of estimating discount rate for investment projects financed with budgetary funds and aimed at creating social benefits. Social benefits often do not have a direct monetary value, so the methods for determining the discount rate for such projects differ from market ones. Spending budget funds on investment projects means that society gives up consumption at the current moment in time for the sake of future return on investment. The discount rate should reflect public preferences regarding the distribution of consumption between the current and future periods. The method for estimating these preferences is called the social rate of time preferences. Another approach to determine the discount rate allows one to consider the alternative possibility of implementing a project in the private sector (social opportunity cost of capital). The article describes the development of methods for evaluating the social discount rate and discusses the possibilities of their application for Russia. The value of the social rate of time preferences, equal to 2.5%, and the value of the social opportunity cost of capital, equal to 4.4—5%, are substantiated for short-and medium-term public investment projects in Russia. Rates are given in real terms.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.