voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-66-85voprecotest-4677Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSТехнологическая близость экономик как фактор привлечения прямых иностранных инвестиций в развивающиеся страныTechnological proximity of countries as a factor of inward foreign direct investment to developing economieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9548-2353ПанковаВ. А.PankovaV. A.

Панкова Вера Александровна, вед. эксперт ЦМАКП;

н. с. ИНП РАН;

н. с. НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Vera A. Pankova

Moscow

vpankova@forecast.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5769-7326ПехальскийД. И.PekhalskiyD. I.

Пехальский Денис Игоревич, эксперт ЦМАКП;

м. н. с. ИНП РАН;

н. с. НИУ ВШЭ;

аспирант МГУ

Москва

Denis I. Pekhalskiy

Moscow

dpekhalsky@forecast.ruЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS; National Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian FederationЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Московский государственный университет имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS; National Research University Higher School of Economics; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation2023051220230126685Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4677

За последние десятилетия входящие потоки прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ) в развивающиеся страны существенно возросли. Однако доля накопленных входящих ПИИ для этих стран в общемировом объеме остается практически неизменной. Это может свидетельствовать о краткосрочном характере инвестиций, связанном с отсутствием мотивов у инвесторов осуществлять долгосрочные вложения в эти страны. В работе выявлены наиболее важные факторы, способствующие устойчивому притоку ПИИ в развивающиеся страны, на основе статистики о двусторонних потоках ПИИ за период 2009—2021 гг. Для этого построена гравитационная модель потоков ПИИ. В отличие от предшествующих исследований, особый акцент сделан на факторе технологической близости стран. Согласно проведенным расчетам, технологическая близость страны-реципиента и страны-инвестора значимо влияет на приток ПИИ в развивающиеся страны, и это влияние неоднородно. Близость технологической структуры экспорта стран способствует увеличению притока ПИИ в страны-реципиенты. При этом близкие по уровню технологического развития страны осуществляют меньший объем взаимных ПИИ, а заметное превышение уровня технологического развития страны-инвестора над аналогичным показателем страны-реципиента приводит к дополнительному притоку ПИИ в силу ресурсного мотива. На основе проведенных расчетов определен перечень стран, наиболее привлекательных для России с точки зрения наращивания объема взаимных ПИИ.

Over the past decades, incoming flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have increased significantly. However, the share of accumulated incoming direct investments of these countries in the global volume of incoming direct investments remains unchanged. This may indicate the shortterm nature of these investments due to the lack of investors’ motivation to make long-term investments in these countries. In our paper, we make an attempt to identify the most significant determinants of flows of inward foreign direct investment to developing countries based on statistics on bilateral flows of such investments for the period of 2009—2021. For this purpose, we have constructed a gravity model of foreign direct investment. In contrast to the previous studies we have focused on the factor of technological proximity between countries. Firstly, the estimation results allow us to conclude that technological proximity between a recipient country and an investor country has a significant impact on the volume of FDI inflows to developing countries. Secondly, this influence is heterogeneous. The proximity of the technological structure of exports between countries contributes to an increase in FDI inflows to a recipient country. At the same time, countries which are close to each other in terms of the level of technological development of exports have a smaller volume of mutual FDI, while a significant excess of the level of technological development of the investor country over that of the recipient one is a factor of additional FDI inflows driven by a resource-seeking motive. Thirdly, based on the obtained results, we have revealed a list of countries that are the most attractive for Russia in terms of increasing the volume of outward FDI.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.