voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-6-133-149voprecotest-4657Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSСценарное моделирование повышения минимального размера оплаты труда: влияние на монетарную бедностьScenario modeling of increasing the minimum wage: estimating impact on monetary povertyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7932-2656ГоринаЕ. А.GorinaE. A.

Горина Елена Александровна, к. э. н., с. н. с. Центра анализа доходов и уровня жизни Института социальной политики НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Elena A. Gorina, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Assistant Professor, Senior Researcher at Centre for Studies of Income and Living Standards, Institute for Social Policy

Moscow

egorina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0081-2581Тер-АкоповС. А.Ter-AkopovS. A.

Тер-Акопов Сергей Александрович, м. н. с. Центра качественных исследований социальной политики Института социальной политики НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Sergey A. Ter-Akopov, Junior Researcher at Centre for Qualitative Social Policy Research, Institute for Social Policy

Moscow

sterakopov@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2374-7759ЧервяковаА. А.ChervyakovaA. А.

Червякова Анна Александровна, к. э. н., н. с. Центра комплексных исследований социальной политики Института социальной политики НИУ ВШЭ 

Москва

Anna A. Chervyakova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Researcher at Centre for Comprehensive Social Policy Studies, Institute for Social Policy

Moscow

aermolina@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2626-7021БирюковаС. С.BiryukovaS. S.

Бирюкова Светлана Сергеевна, к. э. н., вед. н. с. Центра комплексных исследований социальной политики Института социальной политики НИУ ВШЭ 

Москва

Svetlana S. Biryukova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher at Centre for Comprehensive Social Policy Studies, Institute for Social Policy

Moscow

sbiryukova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6044-0732СинявскаяО. В.SinyavskayaO. V.

Синявская Оксана Вячеславовна, к. э. н., заведующая Центром комплексных исследований социальной политики Института социальной политики НИУ ВШЭ 

Москва

Oxana V. Sinyavskaya, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Centre for Comprehensive Social Policy Studies, Institute for Social Policy

Moscow

osinyavskaya@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики"РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation20240506202406133149Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4657

Представлены результаты сценарного моделирования эффектов, которые оказывает повышение минимального размера оплаты труда (МРОТ) на уровень доходов населения и уровень монетарной бедности в России. Использованы данные Выборочного наблюдения доходов населения и участия в социальных программах Росстата, рассматриваются три сценария повышения МРОТ — в диапазоне от 6,3% (фактическое увеличение в 2023 г.) до радикального повышения до величины, соответствующей 1,5 прожиточного минимума трудоспособного гражданина. Оценки, полученные с учетом ряда условных предположений о реакции рынка труда, показывают, что повышение МРОТ в заданном диапазоне приводит к слабому или умеренному приросту среднедушевых доходов, к сокращению уровня и глубины бедности: даже в рамках радикального сценария уровень бедности снижается на 16—19% от исходного показателя, а совокупный дефицит доходов — на 12—17%. Основные факторы, ограничивающие влияние повышения МРОТ на уровень монетарной бедности, связаны со структурой российских домохозяйств. С одной стороны, 2 /3 российских работников с самыми низкими зарплатами проживают в небедных по формальному критерию домохозяйствах. С другой стороны, индивидуальный заработок выше границы бедности может быть недостаточным для преодоления бедности всего домохозяйства в случае, если в его состав входят несовершеннолетние дети.

The article presents scenario modeling of the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on the population income and the poverty rate and gap in Russia. The authors use data from the Rosstat Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs and consider three scenarios for increasing the minimum wage ranging from 6.3% (actual increase in 2023) to a radical increase to a value corresponding to 1.5 subsistence levels of a working-age citizen. The estimates accounting for a number of assumptions about the reaction of the labor market show that an increase in the minimum wage in a given range leads to a weak or moderate increase in per capita income, poverty gap, and poverty rate. Even within the radical scenario, the reduction in poverty rate ranges from –16% to –19% of the initial percentage, and the reduction in the total income deficit ranges from –12% to –17%. The main factors limiting the impact of increasing the minimum wage on the monetary poverty rate are related to the structure of Russian households. On the one hand, two thirds of Russian workers with the lowest wages live in households that are not poor by formal criteria. On the other hand, individual earnings above the poverty line may not be sufficient to overcome the poverty of the entire household if it includes minor children.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.