voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-1-33-51voprecotest-4637Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОБЩЕСТВЕННОГО СЕКТОРАPUBLIC ECONOMICSРост государственного долга: возвращение финансовой репрессии и высокой инфляции?Soaring public debt: Return of financial repression and high inflation?https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6625-0238ПакЕ. А.PakY. A.

Пак Евгения Александровна, аспирант департамента теоретической экономики

Москва

Moscow

epak@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0528-508XПекарскийС. Э.PekarskiS. E.

Пекарский Сергей Эдмундович, к. э. н., проф. департамента теоретической экономики

Москва

Moscow

spekarski@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202407012024013351Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4637

Мировой финансовый кризис 2007—2009 гг. вынудил регулирующие органы развитых и развивающихся стран ужесточить контроль над финансовым сектором. Несмотря на то что меры по финансовому регулированию содержали элементы финансовой репрессии, таковыми они не признавались ввиду отсутствия высокой инфляции, которой сопровождалась финансовая репрессия второй половины XX в. Наоборот, после мирового финансового кризиса в развитых странах возникли риски дефляции. Как следствие, используемые меры контроля финансового рынка с элементами финансовой репрессии не становились препятствием для достижения цели центральных банков. Однако макроэкономическая среда после пандемии COVID-19 изменилась, глобальная инфляция ускорилась. Применение финансовой репрессии в текущих условиях увеличивает риски фискального и финансового доминирования, в рамках которых цель по экономическому росту и соображения финансовой стабильности могут стать препятствием для борьбы с инфляцией. Ввиду ликвидационного воздействия высокой инфляции и финансовой репрессии на государственный долг в 1940—1980 годы можно предположить существование мотивации стран к применению данной практики для стабилизации государственного долга на современном этапе. Более того, геополитические факторы и риски глобальной рецессии, вероятно, предопределят дальнейший рост государственного долга в мире. Финансовая репрессия может стать особенностью экономической политики следующего десятилетия, а высокая инфляция примет устойчивый характер вопреки стремлению центральных банков вернуться к ее низким целевым значениям. В условиях введенных против России санкций и тенденции к разбалансировке фискальной сферы данные риски характерны и для российской экономики.

The global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has once again shown the key role of fiscal stimulus. At the same time, in many developed countries, stimulating monetary policy was limited by the already achieved zero interest rates. But the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus with fiscal policy instruments had a negative effect in the form of an increase in the state budget deficit and, as a result, in public debt. According to the Institute of International Finance (IMF), by the end of 2022, global debt reached $297 trillion, or 349%. The public debt in the world reached 102% of GDP in 2022, which is a historically high value since the 1960s. In 2023, global debt continued to grow in nominal terms: according to the IMF, in Q1 2023, it has already increased by $8.3 trillion to $305 trillion. The risks of rapid growth in public debt in developed and developing countries were even before the COVID-19 pandemic. But after a period of stimulus fiscal measures in 2020—2021 the public debt problem has worsened, raising fears that the practice of financial repression could become a reality for the next decade. Accelerating global inflation increases incentives for governments to use financial repression to eliminate the public debt burden. At the same time, financial repression, in turn, may imply a decrease in the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy, as a result of which there are risks that high inflation will become more sustainable.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.