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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">voprecotest</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вопросы экономики</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Voprosy Ekonomiki</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0042-8736</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.32609/0042-8736-2024-4-127-147</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">voprecotest-4558</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>REGIONAL ECONOMY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование демографической ситуации в регионах на основе агентного подхода</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Modeling the demographic situation in the regions by agent-based approach</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5220-3841</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тимушев</surname><given-names>Е. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Timushev</surname><given-names>E. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Тимушев Евгений Николаевич - к. э. н., доцент кафедры экономики и финансов ПНИПУ.</p><p>Пермь</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Evgeny N. Timushev - Faculty of Humanities, Department of Economics and Finance.</p><p>Perm</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">evgeny_timushev@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-9264</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Дубровская</surname><given-names>Ю. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Dubrovskaya</surname><given-names>Yu. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Дубровская Юлия Владимировна - д. э. н., проф. кафедры экономики и финансов ПНИПУ.</p><p>Пермь</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Yulia V. Dubrovskaya - Faculty of Humanities, Department of Economics and Finance.</p><p>Perm</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">uliadubrov@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9573-7336</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Козоногова</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kozonogova</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Козоногова Елена Викторовна - к. э. н., доцент кафедры экономики и финансов ПНИПУ.</p><p>Пермь</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elena V. Kozonogova - Faculty of Humanities, Department of Economics and Finance.</p><p>Perm</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">elena.kozonogova@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Пермский национальный исследовательский политехнический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Perm National Research Polytechnic University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>04</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>127</fpage><lpage>147</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4558">https://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4558</self-uri><abstract><p>Моделируются демографические изменения на региональном уровне с учетом варьирования параметров системы здравоохранения, объективно являющейся значимым фактором как численности работоспособного населения, так и его качественных характеристик. Принимается, что реформирование системы здравоохранения отражает институциональную природу государственного регулирования, а функционально в модели выступает экзогенным шоком. На основе агент-ориентированного подхода разработана модель, состоящая из двух регионов и учитывающая миграцию агентов. Представлены различные сценарии моделирования демографических показателей в зависимости от выбранного режима качества системы здравоохранения, отражающего институциональные особенности региона. Модель рассчитана на основе статистических данных Пермского края и Свердловской области за период 2012—2019 гг. Апробация модели на фактических региональных данных подтвердила ее работоспособность и адекватность. Шоки в системе здравоохранения связаны с соответствующими расходами бюджетов субъектов Российской Федерации в рамках бюджетного ограничения сектора регионального правительства и оказывают воздействие на динамику миграции на региональных рынках труда, а также на моделируемые показатели здравоохранения. Результаты моделирования подтверждают действенность представленного методологического подхода, который может быть использован при разработке стратегий регионального развития, а также планировании и оценке последствий государственных реформ в области социальной политики.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The aim of the paper is to predict demographic changes at the regional level, based on the variation of the parameters of the healthcare system presumed to be a significant factor in both the number of population and its qualitative characteristics. It is assumed that a reform of the healthcare system reflects the institutional nature of state regulation and serves functionally as an exogenous shock in the model. Based on the agent-based modeling a model consisting of two regions has been developed. It takes into account the migration of agents making decisions based on the level of private income. Various scenarios for modeling demographic indicators are presented, depending on the selected quality regime of the healthcare system that reflects the institutional features of the region. The model is calculated based on the statistics for the Perm Region and the Sverdlovsk Region for the period 2012—2019. The approbation of the model on actual regional data confirmed its operability and adequacy. Shocks in the healthcare system are associated with the corresponding budget expenditures under budget constraints of the regional government sector and have an impact on the dynamics of migration at regional labor markets, as well as on the simulated health indicators. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the presented methodological approach, which can be used in the development of regional strategies, as well as planning and assessing the consequences of state reforms in social policy.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>расходы на здравоохранение</kwd><kwd>качество здравоохранения</kwd><kwd>миграция</kwd><kwd>агент-ориентированное моделирование</kwd><kwd>демографическая политика</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>healthcare costs</kwd><kwd>healthcare quality</kwd><kwd>migration</kwd><kwd>exogenous shocks</kwd><kwd>agent-based modeling</kwd><kwd>demographic policy</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке Российского научного фонда (проект 21-78-10134) (https://rscf.ru/project/21-78-10134/)</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The research was carried out with financial support of the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 21-78-10134, https://rscf.ru/project/21-78-10134/</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Абдулманапов П. 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