voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2024-8-68-88voprecotest-4547Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMICSКак банковское кредитование влияет на малый и средний бизнес?How does bank lending affect small and medium-sized businesses?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4091-4881МишураА. В.MishuraA. V.

Мишура Анна Владимировна - д. э. н., с. н. с. Центра теории рынков и пространственной экономики НИУ ВШЭ в Санкт-Петербурге, проф. Санкт-Петербургской школы экономики и менеджмента НИУ ВШЭ; вед. н. с. ИЭОПП СО РАН.

Санкт-Петербург; Новосибирск

Anna V. Mishura.

St. Petersburg; Novosibirsk

anna.mishura@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства СО РАНРоссияHSE University; Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, the Siberian Branch of the RASRussian Federation202408082024086888Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20242024Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4547

Анализируется влияние банковского кредитования на динамику малого и среднего предпринимательства в регионах России в 2012—2023 гг. Была ли динамика объемов кредитов, выдаваемых банками малому и среднему бизнесу (МСБ), существенным фактором его развития и занятости в этом секторе? Это важный вопрос, поскольку расширение доступности кредитования часто рассматривается как ключевой способ поддержки МСБ и диверсификации экономики. С использованием данных Росстата об обороте и численности занятых на малых, средних и микропредприятиях в региональном разрезе и данных Банка России об объемах банковского кредитования МСБ оценивается влияние кредитования малого и среднего бизнеса на оборот и занятость методом динамической панельной регрессии Ареллано—Бонда. Выявлено, что динамика кредитования была значимым фактором изменений оборота в секторе МСБ, а в меньшей степени — занятости на малых предприятиях. Однако необходимо существенно увеличить объем кредитования, чтобы размер сектора и его доля в экономике страны и занятости населения выросли.

The article analyzes the influence of bank lending on the dynamics of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the regions of Russia in 2012—2023. Was the dynamics of bank loans to SMEs an essential factor of development and employment of the sector? This is an important issue, since expanding the availability of lending is often considered as a key method for supporting SMEs and diversification of the economy. We use data of the Federal State Statistics Service on the turnover and the number of employees in small, medium and micro enterprises in Russian regions, on the one hand, and the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the bank lending to SMEs, on the other. We estimate how changes in SMEs lending amounts affect SMEs turnover and employment using the Alellano—Bond dynamic panel regression approach. It has been found that lending dynamics was a significant factor in changes of the turnover in the SMEs sector, and, to a lesser extent, employment in small enterprises. However, a significant increase in lending is required to significantly increase the size of the sector and its share in the country’s economy and employment.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.