voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-48-65voprecotest-4490Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS«Уходя — уходи»: кто остается с Россией и как перераспределяется импорт?“Having leapt never look back”: Who stays with Russia and how are imports redistributed?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0678-8324ГнидченкоА. А.GnidchenkoA. A.

Гнидченко Андрей Андреевич, к. э. н., вед. Эксперт ЦМАКП;

с. н. с. ИНП РАН;

с. н. с. НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Andrey A. Gnidchenko

Moscow

agnidchenko@forecast.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8703-1568МихееваО. М.MikheevaO. M.

Михеева Ольга Михайловна, к. э. н., вед. эксперт ЦМАКП;

с. н. с. ИНП РАН;

н.  с. НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Olga M. Mikheeva

Moscow

omikheeva@forecast.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4528-4348СальниковВ. А.SalnikovV. A.

Сальников Владимир Алексеевич, к. э. н., руководитель направления анализа и прогнозирования развития отраслей реального сектора ЦМАКП;

завлабораторией ИНП РАН;

вед. н. с. НИУ ВШЭ

Москва

Vladimir A. Salnikov

Moscow

vs@forecast.ruЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences; HSE UniversityRussian Federation2023051220230124865Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4490

В статье исследуется разделение стран по политическому отношению к России после начала специальной военной операции на Украине и введения широкомасштабных санкций, иллюстрируется значимость санкционного фактора и политического отношения к РФ для экспорта на российские рынки на основании доступных статистических данных. Страны классифицируются по признаку их участия в санкционном давлении на РФ и голосованию по резолюциям ООН, осуждающим действия России. Кроме «недружественных», выделяются три группы дружественных стран — «осторожные» (голосование за резолюции ООН), «колеблющиеся» (несистематическое голосование) и «сочувствующие» (голосование против резолюций или их игнорирование). В соответствии с данными о внешней торговле с Россией к кластеру «сочувствующих» относятся большинство стран, нарастивших экспорт в нее в 2022 г. На примере ЕС и Китая показано, что импорт санкционных товаров перераспределяется активнее, чем ввоз остальных; перечислены наиболее значимые товарные позиции, по которым отмечено успешное или неудачное перераспределение импорта.

We examine the division of countries according to their political attitude towards Russia after the launch of a special military operation in Ukraine and the introduction of large-scale sanctions, and illustrate the importance of sanctions and political attitude to Russia for countries’ exports there with the available statistical data. The countries are clustered by their participation in sanctions pressure on Russia and voting on six UN resolutions condemning Russia’s actions. Except for hostile countries, we distinguish three groups of friendly countries — “cautious” (voting for UN resolutions), “wavering” (non-systematic voting), and “sympathetic” (voting against resolutions or ignoring them). According to mirror data on foreign trade with Russia, most countries which increased their exports to Russia in 2022 belong to the “sympathizers” group. Relying on the evidence from the EU and China, we demonstrate that imports of sanctioned goods are redistributed more actively than other imports. We list major products which imports were redistributed successfully or unsuccessfully.

санкциидружественные страныкластеризацияперераспределение импортаЕСКитайsanctionsfriendly countriesclusterizationimport redistributionEUChinaReferencesBailey M., Strezhnev A., Voeten E. (2017). Estimating dynamic state preferences from United Nations voting data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 2, No. 61, pp. 430—456. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700Bailey M., Strezhnev A., Voeten E. (2017). Estimating dynamic state preferences from United Nations voting data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 2, No. 61, pp. 430—456. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700Binder M., Lockwood Payton A. (2022). With frenemies like these: Rising power voting behavior in the UN General Assembly. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 381—398. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000538Binder M., Lockwood Payton A. (2022). With frenemies like these: Rising power voting behavior in the UN General Assembly. British Journal of Political Science, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 381—398. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000538Bo H. (2022). Implications of the Ukraine war for China: Can China survive secondary sanctions? Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 311—322. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2022.2136933Bo H. (2022). Implications of the Ukraine war for China: Can China survive secondary sanctions? Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 311—322. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2022.2136933Chupilkin M., Javorcik B., Plekhanov A. (2023). The Eurasian roundabout: Trade flows into Russia through the Caucasus and Central Asia. EBRD Working Paper, No. 276. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4368618Chupilkin M., Javorcik B., Plekhanov A. (2023). The Eurasian roundabout: Trade flows into Russia through the Caucasus and Central Asia. EBRD Working Paper, No. 276. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4368618Crozet M., Hinz J. (2020). Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Economic Policy, Vol. 35, No. 101, pp. 97—146. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiaa006Crozet M., Hinz J. (2020). Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Economic Policy, Vol. 35, No. 101, pp. 97—146. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiaa006Felbermayr G., Kirilakha A., Syropoulos C., Yalcin E., Yotov Y. (2020). The global sanctions data base. European Economic Review, Vol. 129, article 103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103561Felbermayr G., Kirilakha A., Syropoulos C., Yalcin E., Yotov Y. (2020). The global sanctions data base. European Economic Review, Vol. 129, article 103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103561Gullstrand J. (2020). What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. World Economy, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 2315—2342. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13000Gullstrand J. (2020). What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis. World Economy, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 2315—2342. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13000Hausmann R., Schetter U., Yildirim M. (2022). On the design of effective sanctions: The case of bans on exports to Russia. CID Working Paper Series, No. 417.Hausmann R., Schetter U., Yildirim M. (2022). On the design of effective sanctions: The case of bans on exports to Russia. CID Working Paper Series, No. 417.Javorcik B., Kitzmüller L., Schweiger H., Yildirim M. (2022). Economic costs of friendshoring. EBRD Working Paper, No. 274.Javorcik B., Kitzmüller L., Schweiger H., Yildirim M. (2022). Economic costs of friendshoring. EBRD Working Paper, No. 274.Latipov O., Lau C., Mahlstein K., Schropp S. (2022). The economic effects of potential EU tariff sanctions on Russia — A sectoral approach. Intereconomics, Vol. 57, No. 5, pp. 294—305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1074-1Latipov O., Lau C., Mahlstein K., Schropp S. (2022). The economic effects of potential EU tariff sanctions on Russia — A sectoral approach. Intereconomics, Vol. 57, No. 5, pp. 294—305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1074-1Lu F., Huang L., Li S. (2022). Sanctions and social capital: Evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Available at SSRN: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4108129Lu F., Huang L., Li S. (2022). Sanctions and social capital: Evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Available at SSRN: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4108129MacQueen J. (1967). Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In: L. M. Le Cam, J. Neyman (eds.). Proceedings of the fifth Berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability, Vol. 1. California: University of California Press, pp. 281—297.MacQueen J. (1967). Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In: L. M. Le Cam, J. Neyman (eds.). Proceedings of the fifth Berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability, Vol. 1. California: University of California Press, pp. 281—297.Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. (2022). Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An allied trade embargo. World Economy, Vol. 45, No. 11, pp. 3344—3383. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. (2022). Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An allied trade embargo. World Economy, Vol. 45, No. 11, pp. 3344—3383. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311Mardones C. (2023). Economic effects of isolating Russia from international trade due to its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. European Planning Studies, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 663—678. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2022.2079074Mardones C. (2023). Economic effects of isolating Russia from international trade due to its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. European Planning Studies, Vol. 31, No. 4, pp. 663—678. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2022.2079074Rhee K., Crabtree C., Horiuchi Y. (2023). Perceived motives of public diplomacy influence foreign public opinion. Political Behavior. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09849-4Rhee K., Crabtree C., Horiuchi Y. (2023). Perceived motives of public diplomacy influence foreign public opinion. Political Behavior. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-022-09849-4Timofeev I. (2022). Sanctions on Russia: A new chapter. Russia in Global Affairs, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 103—119. https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2022-20-4-103-119Timofeev I. (2022). Sanctions on Russia: A new chapter. Russia in Global Affairs, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 103—119. https://doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2022-20-4-103-119Weber P., Schneider G. (2020). How many hands to make sanctions work? Comparing EU and US sanctioning efforts. European Economic Review, Vol. 130, No. C, article 103595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103595Weber P., Schneider G. (2020). How many hands to make sanctions work? Comparing EU and US sanctioning efforts. European Economic Review, Vol. 130, No. C, article 103595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103595

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.