voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-7-45-64voprecotest-441Research ArticleТЕНДЕНЦИИ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИWORLD ECONOMIC TRENDSФакторы и последствия расширения еврозоныDeterminants and implications of the Eurozone enlargementКолодкоГж. В.KolodkoG. W.

проф., директор TIGER

kolodko@tiger.edu.plПостулаМ.PostulaM.

PhD, доцент, руководитель Центра предпринимательства факультета менеджмента

mpostula@wz.uw.edu.plTIGER — Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research, Университет Козьминского (Варшава)ПольшаTIGER — Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research, Kozminski University (Warszawa)PolandУниверситет Варшавы (Варшава)ПольшаCenter of Entrepreneurship at the Faculty of Management, Warsaw University (Warszawa)Poland201820072018074564Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/441

Кроме Соединенного Королевства, которое выходит из состава Европейского союза, только Дания имеет возможность остаться за пределами единой зоны европейской валюты. Все другие страны — члены союза, не принявшие евро в качестве своей денежной единицы, имеют право и обязанность сделать это по условиям Договора о присоединении к еврозоне, но страна должна выполнить все пять Маастрихтских критериев конвергенции и обеспечить соответствие национального законодательства acquis communautaire, или своду законов ЕС. Особые трудности для стран-кандидатов представляет бюджетный критерий, связанный с максимально допустимым дефицитом бюджета. Если он не выполняется, то Европейская комиссия инициирует процедуру, касающуюся чрезмерного дефицита бюджета. В настоящее время данная процедура введена во Франции, Испании и Соединенном Королевстве. В 2015 г. проводившаяся в отношении Польши процедура была прекращена, однако нет уверенности в том, что она не будет возобновлена в конце десятилетия в связи с риском повторного превышения порогового значения дефицита бюджета 3% ВВП. В 2020 - е годы в Европейский валютный союз могут войти все страны, до сих пор использующие свои национальные валюты, включая Данию, а к ЕС, возможно, присоединятся новые страны, что также будет содействовать расширению еврозоны. Данный вопрос еще не решен окончательно, однако евро, скорее всего, сможет преодолеть текущие трудности и укрепить свои позиции, хотя экономически необоснованный евроскептицизм некоторых государств — особенно Польши — не способствует этому.

Aside from the United Kingdom, which is withdrawing from the European Union, only Denmark has the option of staying outside the single European currency area. All other member states which have not adopted euro as their currency have the right and obligations to do so under the Treaty of Accession. The condition to join the Eurozone is to meet all five nominal Maastricht convergence criteria and to ensure compliance of national legislation with acquis communautaire, or the EU legal order. What poses special difficulties to candidate countries is the fiscal criterion relating to the maximum allowed budget deficit. If it’s not met, the European Commission launches the Excessive Deficit Procedure, EDP. Currently, this procedure is in place for France, Spain and the United Kingdom. In 2015, EDP for Poland was lifted, but there is no certainty it won’t be imposed again at the end of the decade due to the risk of exceeding once more the threshold of public sector deficit, which stands at 3 percent GDP. It is to be expected that in the 2020s the European Monetary Union will be joined by all the countries that are still using their national currencies, including Denmark, and that the EU will be extended to include new member states, enlarging the euro area, too. Although the issue is not absolutely certain, it needs to be assumed that euro will overcome the present difficulties and come out stronger, though the economically unjustified euroskepticism of some countries, especially Poland, is not helping.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.