voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49voprecotest-4351Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSДом, который построил Кейнс: косметический и капитальный ремонт модели денежно-кредитной политикиThe house that Keynes built: Redecorating and overhaul of the monetary policy modelhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9044-5403МоисеевС. Р.MoiseevS. R.

Моисеев Сергей Рустамович – доктор экономических наук, советник первого заместителя Председателя Банка России.

Москва

Sergey R. Moiseev.

Moscow

srmoiseev@gmail.comБанк РоссииРоссияBank of RussiaRussian Federation202310072023073549Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4351

Очередной экономический кризис вынуждает макроэкономистов пересматривать свои модели. Денежно­-кредитная политика  не исключение. Вследствие «Великой рецессии»  2007-2009  гг. и пандемии COVID­19 в 2020-2021  гг. им пришлось  по­-новому оценить модели денежно­-кредитной политики, лежащие в основе решений  центрального банка  о краткосрочной процентной  ставке. Большинство таких  моделей  опираются  на принципы новой  кейнсианской теории. Исходя из ряда  теоретических предположений и упрощений, набор уравнений приводит  к определенным модельным  выводам. В 2020­-е годы идет активная работа  по пересмотру  новых  кейнсианских моделей. Среди основных  улучшений  можно выделить  моделирование финансового сектора; замену  рациональных ожиданий на их альтернативы, а также  репрезентативных экономических агентов на гетерогенных; поиск микроэкономических обоснований  допущений  и моделирование налогово­-бюджетной политики.

The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their  models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the  “Great Recession” in 2007-2009 and  the  COVID-­19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they  were  forced  to refresh a look at the  monetary policy models that define central bank’s short­term interest rate decisions. The principles of the  New Keynesian economics  lie behind  most modern  models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several  theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under  way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with  their alternatives, as well  as representative economic  agents with  heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and  fiscal  policy  modeling.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.