voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-4-5-28voprecotest-4318Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSОценка макроэкономических эффектов от ожидаемого сокращения нефтегазовых доходовMacroeconomic effects of the expected future decline in oil revenues for the Russian economy under capital controlhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8709-2758АндреевМ. Ю.AndreyevM. Y.

Андреев Михаил Юрьевич, кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент, главный экономист Банка России; доцент кафедры высшей математики МФТИ; старший научный сотрудник. Центра математического моделирования экономических процессов Института прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС

Москва; Долгопрудный

Moscow; Dolgoprudniy

m.andreyev@inbox.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4683-8194ПолбинА. В.PolbinA. V.

Полбин Андрей Владимирович, кандидат экономических наук, руководитель Центра математического моделирования экономических процессов Института прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС; заведующий Международной лабораторией математического моделирования экономических процессов Института Гайдара

Москва

Moscow

apolbin@gmail.comБанк России; Московский физико-технический институт; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияBank of Russia; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияGaidar Institute; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation20230504202304528Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4318

С начала проведения специальной военной операции на Украине российская экономика столкнулась с большим числом санкций со стороны недружественных государств. На начало 2023 г. экспортные доходы РФ от продажи энергоресурсов остаются высокими. Однако велики риски их снижения на горизонте нескольких лет из-за ограничений со стороны недружественных стран. В работе на основе модели общего равновесия для российской экономики анализируется влияние шока ожиданий сокращения в будущем доходов от экспорта энергоресурсов. Показано, что ожидание падения доходов от экспорта энергоресурсов приводит к краткосрочному и среднесрочному росту внутренних инвестиций. В условиях закрытого счета финансовых операций эффект роста инвестиций в ответ на ожидаемое сокращение экспортного дохода сохраняется, даже если исключить возможность увеличения несырьевого экспорта, а при открытом финансовом счете инвестиции снижаются, что говорит о важной роли в динамике инвестиций мотива сбережений, когда возможность сбережений на внешних финансовых рынках ограничена. При закрытом финансовом счете платежного баланса падение макроэкономических показателей оказывается резким и локализованным в окрестности периода падения экспортных доходов. При режиме инфляционного таргетирования в ответ на ожидаемый и неожиданный шок падения экспорта центральный банк должен изменять ставку в противоположных направлениях.

Since the beginning of Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the Russian economy has faced a large number of sanctions from unfriendly states. At the beginning of 2023, Russia’s export revenues remain high. However, there are high risks of revenues decline over the horizon of several years due to restrictions on the part of unfriendly countries. Based on a general equilibrium model for the Russian economy, we analyze the impact of an anticipated shock from a reduction in future energy export revenues. First, the paper shows that the anticipated shock of a fall in export revenues leads to a short-term and medium-term increase in domestic investment. Under a closed financial account, the effect of growth in investment remains even if other export doesn’t react to currency appreciation, while under an open financial account, investment decreases. This indicates the important role of the rainy day savings factor for investment dynamics, when the possibility of savings in external financial markets is limited. Second, in the short and medium term, the impact of revenues decline is highly dependent on whether the financial account is open or closed. Under a closed financial account, the drop in macroeconomic indicators turns out to be sharp and localized in the vicinity of the period of export revenues fall. Third, the central bank’s interest rate moves in exactly opposite directions under inflation targeting regime in response to the unanticipated and anticipated export revenues shock.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.