voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2017-12-81-95voprecotest-425Research ArticleРОССИЯ И МИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАRUSSIA AND THE WORLD ECONOMYНовая волна глобального долгового кризиса: риски возрастаютA new wave of the global debt crisis: the risks increaseХейфецБ. А.KheyfetsB.

д. э. н., проф., гл. н. с. Института экономики РАН, профессор Финансового университета при Правительстве РФ (Москва)

bah412@rambler.ruИнститут экономики РАН; Финансовый университет при Правительстве РФРоссияInstitute of Economics, RAS; Financial University under the Government of the Russian FederationRussian Federation2017201220170128195Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20172017Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/425

В отличие от формально преодоленного глобального финансово-экономического кризиса, начавшегося в 2008 г., глобальный долговой кризис, миновав острый период, продолжается. В статье показаны особенности современного глобального долгового кризиса и проанализированы его значимые проявления. Подробно рассматриваются проблемы наиболее крупных регионов и стран, отягощенных долговыми проблемами. Выделены основные стратегии преодоления современного долгового кризиса, дана оценка их позитивных и негативных сторон для стабильного экономического роста. Показаны предпосылки обострения глобального долгового кризиса, сделан вывод о необходимости усилить внимание международного сообщества к долговым проблемам.

Unlike the formally overcome global financial and economic crisis, which began in 2008, the global debt crisis, having passed an acute phase, continues. The article shows the features of the current global debt crisis and analyzes the main trends of its manifestation. The problems of the largest regions and countries with high debt burden - the EU, the USA, Japan, and China - are considered in detail. The main strategies worked out to overcome the current debt crisis have been singled out, and their positive and negative sides for stable economic growth have been assessed. The emerging prerequisites for aggravating the global debt crisis are shown. It is concluded that there is a need to attract more attention of the international community to debt problems, which should become one of the priority goals of global governance.

глобальный долговой кризисгосударственный долгкорпоративный долгдолговой навесколичественное смягчениеЕвропейский центральный банкФедеральная резервная системаglobal debt crisisstate and corporate debtdebt overhangquantitative easingEuropean Central BankFederal Reserve SystemReferencesБуторина О. (2012). Причины и последствия кризиса в зоне евро // Вопросы экономики. № 12. С. 98-115Butorina O. (2012). Causes and consequences of the crisis in the eurozone. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 98—115. (In Russian).Хейфец Б. (2002). Решение долговых проблем. Мировой опыт и российская действительность. М.: НаукаKheyfets B. (2002). Solution of debt problems. World experience and Russian reality. Moscow: Nauka. (In Russian).Amadeo K. (2017). How interest on the national debt affects you. https://www. thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024Amadeo K. (2017). How interest on the national debt affects you. https://www. thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024Amaro S. (2017). Debt crisis 2.0? Worries return to Europe as ECB could be forced to continue with stimulus. CNBC, 13 February. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/ debt-crisis-20-worries-return-to-europe-as-ecb-could-be-forced-to-continue-with-stimulus.htmlAmaro S. (2017). Debt crisis 2.0? Worries return to Europe as ECB could be forced to continue with stimulus. CNBC, 13 February. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/ debt-crisis-20-worries-return-to-europe-as-ecb-could-be-forced-to-continue-with-stimulus.htmlArmstrong M. (2017). The end of quantitative easing - perhaps now it will be inflationary? https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-end- of-quantitative-easing-perhaps-now-it-will-be-inflationary/Armstrong M. (2017). The end of quantitative easing - perhaps now it will be inflationary? https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-end- of-quantitative-easing-perhaps-now-it-will-be-inflationary/Chan Szu Ping (2017). Global debt explodes at ‘eye-watering’ pace to hit £170 trillion. The Telegraph, 4 April. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/04/ global-debt-explodes-eye-watering-pace-hit-170-trillion/Chan Szu Ping (2017). Global debt explodes at ‘eye-watering’ pace to hit £170 trillion. The Telegraph, 4 April. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/04/ global-debt-explodes-eye-watering-pace-hit-170-trillion/Dobbs R., Lund S., Woetzel J., Mutafchieva M. (2015). Debt and (not much) deleveraging. McKinsey Global Institute.Dobbs R., Lund S., Woetzel J., Mutafchieva M. (2015). Debt and (not much) deleveraging. McKinsey Global Institute.Hedrick-Wong Y. (2015). QE and its global consequences. Forbes, 18 October.Hedrick-Wong Y. (2015). QE and its global consequences. Forbes, 18 October.Huang Y. (2017). The next global financial crisis: A Chinese sovereign debt default? The National Interest Blog, May 28. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/ the-next-global-financial-crisis-chinese-sovereign-debt-20889Huang Y. (2017). The next global financial crisis: A Chinese sovereign debt default? The National Interest Blog, May 28. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/ the-next-global-financial-crisis-chinese-sovereign-debt-20889IMF (2016). Fiscal Monitor: Debt - use it wisely. October. Wahington, DC: International Monetary Fund.IMF (2016). Fiscal Monitor: Debt - use it wisely. October. Wahington, DC: International Monetary Fund.IIF (2017). Global debt monitor. January. Washington, DC: Institute of International Finance.IIF (2017). Global debt monitor. January. Washington, DC: Institute of International Finance.Jubilee Debt Campaign (2017). Global debt crises and threats increase across the world. http://jubileedebt.org.uk/press-release/global-debt-crises-threats-increase-across-worldJubilee Debt Campaign (2017). Global debt crises and threats increase across the world. http://jubileedebt.org.uk/press-release/global-debt-crises-threats-increase-across-worldKaiser J. (2017). Global sovereign indebtedness monitor. Debt Report 2017, English version. Düsseldorf.Kaiser J. (2017). Global sovereign indebtedness monitor. Debt Report 2017, English version. Düsseldorf.Keen S. (2016). The seven countries most vulnerable to a debt crisis. Forbes, 27 March.Keen S. (2016). The seven countries most vulnerable to a debt crisis. Forbes, 27 March.Kheyfets B. (2012). Economic crisis and the Russian debt problem. Journal of Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 7, pp. 33-52.Kheyfets B. (2012). Economic crisis and the Russian debt problem. Journal of Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 7, pp. 33-52.Klitgaard T., Wheeler H. (2016). The rapidly changing nature of Japan’s public debt. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 22. http:// libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/06/the-rapidly-changing-nature-of-japans-public-debt.htmlKlitgaard T., Wheeler H. (2016). The rapidly changing nature of Japan’s public debt. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 22. http:// libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/06/the-rapidly-changing-nature-of-japans-public-debt.htmlLund S., Windhagen E., Manyika J., Härle P., Woetzel J., Goldshtein D. (2017). The new dynamics of financial globalization. McKinsey Global Institute.Lund S., Windhagen E., Manyika J., Härle P., Woetzel J., Goldshtein D. (2017). The new dynamics of financial globalization. McKinsey Global Institute.OECD (2013). Debt and macroeconomic stability. Economics Department Policy Note, No. 16.OECD (2013). Debt and macroeconomic stability. Economics Department Policy Note, No. 16.Reinhart C., Reinhart V., Kenneth S., Rogoff K. (2012). Debt overhangs: Past and present. NBER Working Paper, No. 18015. Truth Committee on Public Debt (2015). Preliminary report.Reinhart C., Reinhart V., Kenneth S., Rogoff K. (2012). Debt overhangs: Past and present. NBER Working Paper, No. 18015. Truth Committee on Public Debt (2015). Preliminary report.Athens. Vague R. (2014). The next economic disaster: Why it’s coming and how to avoid it. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.Athens. Vague R. (2014). The next economic disaster: Why it’s coming and how to avoid it. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.UN (2016). External debt sustainability and development (A/71/276). Report of the Secretary-General. Seventy-first session. General Assembly. 2 August.UN (2016). External debt sustainability and development (A/71/276). Report of the Secretary-General. Seventy-first session. General Assembly. 2 August.Wijffelaars M., Loman H. (2015). The eurozone (debt) crisis - causes and crisis response. Rabobank, 18 December. https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2015/ december/the-eurozone-debt-crisis--causes-and-crisis-response/Wijffelaars M., Loman H. (2015). The eurozone (debt) crisis - causes and crisis response. Rabobank, 18 December. https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2015/ december/the-eurozone-debt-crisis--causes-and-crisis-response/Wilson K. (2016). The economics of resolving the global debt crisis. https://seekingalpha. com/article/3969722-economics-resolving-global-debt-crisisWilson K. (2016). The economics of resolving the global debt crisis. https://seekingalpha. com/article/3969722-economics-resolving-global-debt-crisisWorld Bank (2017). International debt statistics. Washington, DC.World Bank (2017). International debt statistics. Washington, DC.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.