voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-94-116voprecotest-4200Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSЗаработная плата, возраст и экономический рост: оценки для РоссииWages, age, and economic growth: Estimates for Russiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-3680ЗамниусА. В.ZamniusA. V.

Замниус Алексей Васильевич, младший научный сотрудник центра математического моделирования экономических процессов Института прикладных экономических исследований

Москва

Alexey V. Zamnius

Moscow

zamnius-av@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4683-8194ПолбинА. В.PolbinA. V.

Полбин  Андрей Владимирович, кандидат экономических наук, директор центра математического моделирования экономических процессов ИПЭИ РАНХиГС, заведующий Международной лабораторией математического моделирования экономических процессов Института Гайдара

Москва

Andrey V. Polbin

Moscow

apolbin@iep.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6667-9958Синельников-МурылевС. Г.Sinelnikov-MurylevS. G.

Синельников-Мурылев Сергей Германович, доктор экономических наук, профессор, научный руководитель Института Гайдара

Москва

Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev

Moscow

sinel@vavt.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian FederationРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Институт экономической политики имени Е.Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian FederationИнститут экономической политики имени Е. Т. ГайдараRussian FederationGaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian Federation2023050620230694116Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4200

Оценивается зависимость величины заработной платы от возраста индивидов на основе микроданных РМЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ за период 2000— 2019 гг.  в  России.  Предполагается  квадратичная  зависимость  заработной платы от возраста индивида для кросс-секционных моделей, сдвиги кросс-секционных кривых во времени описываются динамикой валового регионального продукта. Параметры модели оцениваются для различных социальных групп, разделенных по полу и уровню образования, на основе модели со случайными индивидуальными эффектами, что позволяет получить наиболее эффективные оценки параметров на основе как внутригрупповой, так и межгрупповой вариации в данных. Полученные оценки можно применять при калибровке моделей общего равновесия с перекрывающимися поколениями. Рассмотрена проблема снижения заработной платы по мере приближения к пенсионному возрасту и обсуждаются возможные причины этого. Получены оценки темпов экономического роста, при которых заработная плата не убывает по мере достижения индивидом возраста 55, 60 и 65 лет. 

We study the dependence of wages on ages of individuals based on RLMS-HSE microdata for individuals aged 25—55 years for the period 2000— 2019 in Russia. A quadratic dependence of wages on the age of an individual is assumed for cross-sectional models, while shifts of cross-sectional wage profiles over time are described by the dynamics of the gross regional product. The model parameters are estimated for different social groups, separated by gender and educational level, based on a model with random effects, which allows us to obtain the most effective parameter estimates based on both within-group and between-group variation in the data. The estimates obtained can be used in calibration of general equilibrium models with overlapping generations. We touch upon the problem of reducing wages in ages close to retirement and discuss possible reasons for this decrease. We also estimate minimal economic growth rates, forcing the wage rates to increase until the individual reaches the ages of 55, 60 and 65.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.