voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-9-5-33voprecotest-4128Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSНефтяной рынок: конфликт между подъемом и энергетическим переходомOil market: Conflict between recovery and energy transitionhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3891-7060ГригорьевЛ. М.GrigoryevL. M.

Григорьев Леонид Маркович, к. э. н., ординарный профессор, научный руководитель департамента мировой экономики факультета мировой экономики и мировой политики (ФМЭМП), сотрудник лаборатории международных макроэкономических исследований

Москва

Leonid M. Grigoryev

Moscow

lgrigor1@yandex.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5532-2240ХейфецЕ. А.KheifetsE. A.

Хейфец Екатерина Александровна, ведущий аналитик направления «Экономика и социальное развитие» ЦСР, сотрудник лаборатории международных макроэкономических исследований департамента мировой экономики ФМЭМП НИУ ВШЭ

Ekaterina A. Kheifets

Moscow

catherinekheifets@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Центр стратегических разработокРоссияHSE University; Center for Strategic ResearchRussian Federation20220609202209533Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4128

Рассматривается место нефти, особенно моторного топлива, в топливно-энергетическом балансе развитых и развивающихся стран в условиях потрясений, связанных с НТП, климатической политикой, пандемией 2020 г., подъемом 2021 г. и санкциями 2022 г. Отмечены устойчивый спрос на моторное топливо в ходе постпандемийного оживления и улучшение положения нефтяных компаний. Влияние климатической политики двойственное: одновременно сокращается относительный спрос на нефть и снижаются инвестиции в нефтедобычу. Санкции и частичное нефтяное эмбарго рассматриваются как разновидность принудительной промышленной политики, ведущей к реорганизации мировых систем добычи, доставки и потребления нефти, а также к повышению неопределенности в инвестиционной сфере и к росту энергетических цен. Это означает изменение инвестиционной функции зрелой отрасли с расширения мощностей на увеличение выплат и рыночной капитализации. Конфликт целеполагания между энергетической безопасностью и сохранением климата планеты углубляется. Остается нерешенным фундаментальный вопрос: насколько государственная политика может изменить естественные процессы трансформации, в какие сроки и с какими издержками? Ситуация в энергетике позволяет проверить способность мировых элит координировать свои действия в вопросах устойчивого развития мировой экономики и сохранения климата планеты.

The article considers the place of oil in the energy balance of developed and developing countries during the shocks associated with the technological progress, business cycles, climate policy trends, the pandemic of 2020, and the sanctions of 2022. The results reveal the stability of the demand for motor fuel in the post-pandemic recovery as well as the improvement of the position of oil companies. The study examines the multidirectional impact of climate policies: reducing oil demand and discouraging investment in oil production. In addition, our research considers sanctions and a partial oil embargo as a kind of forced industrial policy leading to the reorganization of the world’s oil production, delivery, and consumption systems, as well as the uncertainty in investment and an increase in energy prices. The stability of the demand for motor fuel in the post-pandemic recovery and the improvement of the position of oil companies are shown. The duality of the influence of the climate policy is considered: the reduction of relative oil demand, as well as the deterrence of investment in oil production. For a mature industry that provides high returns to investors, this means a normal change in the investment function from expanding capacity to increasing payments and market capitalization. The goal-setting conflict between energy security and the preservation of the planet’s climate is deepening. The fundamental question: how much government policy can change the natural processes of transformation, how quickly and at what cost, remains unresolved. Energy is proving to be one of the key touchstones for the ability of the world’s elites to coordinate on issues of sustainable development of the world economy and the preservation of the planet’s climate.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.