voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-24-43voprecotest-4123Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSНовая концепция международных резервов: безопасность, диверсификация, неортодоксальные подходыNew concept of international reserve assets: Security, diversification and nonconventional approacheshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9584-3494ВинокуровЕ. Ю.VinokurovE. Y.

Винокуров Евгений Юрьевич, доктор экономических наук, профессор РАН, главный экономист Евразийского фонда стабилизации и развития

Москва

Evgeny Y. Vinokurov, Ph.D. (econ.), Professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Chief Economist 

Moscow

evinokurov@efsd.orghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8175-5362ГричикМ. В.GrichikM. V.

Гричик Марина Васильевна, начальник отдела технического содействия и публикаций Группы главного экономиста ЕФСР

Москва

Marina V. Grichik, Head of Technical Assistance and Publications Unit 

Moscow

 

mgrichik@efsd.orgЕвразийский фонд стабилизации и развитияРоссияEurasian Fund for Stabilization and DevelopmentRussian Federation2022021220220122443Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4123

Замораживание валютных резервов России — седьмых по величине в мире — хотя и не было первым случаем такого рода, но имеет системное значение для мировых финансов. Финансовые санкции подорвали доверие к традиционным резервным валютам. Это не позволяет сохранить устоявшуюся концепцию международных резервов, несмотря на то что традиционные резервные валюты были универсальным инструментом и выполняли все функции международных резервов с минимальными затратами, но готовой альтернативы им не существует. Предложены подходы к новым принципам управления международными резервами. Базовым принципом станет безопасность резервов, которая будет обеспечиваться за счет диверсификации инструментов, управления резервами несколькими операторами и фрагментации функций резервов между различными инструментами. Рассматриваются возможные варианты решений, которые могут заменить резервы в традиционных резервных валютах, — от компромиссных до откровенно неортодоксальных. Их можно разделить на три блока: расширение использования существующих инструментов, внедрение новых инструментов и изменение парадигмы. Сложившаяся в итоге система будет характеризоваться волатильностью, большей сложностью управления и более высокими издержками. Это цена, которую страны будут готовы платить за безопасность резервов.

The freezing of Russia’s international reserve assets, the world’s seventh largest, despite not being the first case of its kind, will have systemic impact on the way countries around the world treat their reserves. Financial sanctions have undermined confidence in traditional reserve currencies. A systemic and complete revision of the conceptual approaches to managing international reserve assets is due. The current framework of the international financial system does not offer any off-the-shelf solutions to enable safeguarding the integrity of reserves and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The paper proposes potential new approaches to the safety of reserve assets. It could be implemented through the diversification of instruments and operators. The paper examines several possible solutions that might complement/replace reserves in traditional reserve currencies, ranging from compromise solutions to unconventional ones: (1) expanding the use of existing tools which carry less risk, (2) introducing new instruments, and (3) changing the paradigm. The authors conclude that the resulting system will be more volatile, decentralized, complicated and expensive to manage. However, this is the price many countries would be willing to pay for the security of their reserves.

международные резервные активымеждународные резервыМВФмакроэкономическая стабильностьглобальная сеть финансовой безопасностирезервные валютыforeign exchange reservesIMFmacroeconomic stabilityglobal financial stabilityreserve currencyReferencesВинокуров Е., Лаврова Н., Петренко В. (2021). Повышение роли национальных валют ЕАЭС в международных расчетах. М.: Евразийский банк развития.Vinokurov E., Lavrova N., Petrenko V. (2021). Promoting the role of the EAEU currencies in global transactions. Moscow: Eurasian Development Bank. (In Russian).Винокуров Е., Левенков А. (2021). Глобальная сеть финансовой безопасности: эволюция антикризисной функции в мировой финансовой архитектуре // Вопросы экономики. № 5. С. 26—42.Vinokurov E., Levenkov A. (2021). The global financial safety net: Evolution of the anti-crisis function in the global financial architecture. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 26—42. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-26-42Винокуров Е., Левенков А., Васильев Г., Потапов С. (2021). Эволюция инструментов и подходов в рамках расширенной глобальной сети финансовой безопасности в ответ на кризис COVID-19 // Рабочий документ Евразийского фонда стабилизации и развития. № РД/21/1. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3941746Vinokurov E., Levenkov A., Vasiliev G., Potapov S. (2021). Evolution of tools and approaches within the enlarged global financial safety net in response to the COVID-19 crisis. EFSD Working Paper, No. 21/1. (In Russian). http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3941746Звонова Е., Кузнецов А. (2018). Сценарии развития мировой валютно-финансовой системы: возможности и риски для России // Мировая экономика и международные отношения. Т. 62, № 2. С. 5—16. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-2-5-16Zvonova E., Kuznetsov A. (2018). Scenarios for the development of the world monetary and financial system: Opportunities and risks for Russia. World Economy and International Relations, Vol. 62, No. 2, pp. 5—16. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-2-5-16Наркевич С. (2015). Золотовалютные резервы: история, определение, состав и современные функции // Вопросы экономики. № 4. С. 86—105. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-4-86-105Narkevich S. (2015). Gold and foreign exchange reserves: History, definition, composition and modern functions. Voprosy Ekonomiki, Vol. 4, рр. 86—105. (In Russian). https://doi.org/ 10.32609/0042-8736-2015-4-86-105Хайек Ф. (1996). Частные деньги. М.: Институт национальной модели экономики.Hayek F. (1996). Private money. Moscow: Institute of national economy model. (In Russian).Эйхенгрин Б. (2013). Непомерная привилегия: Взлет и падение доллара. М.: Изд-во Института Гайдара.Eichengreen B. (2013). Exorbitant privilege: The rise and fall of the dollar. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ. (In Russian).Aizenman J., Cheung Y.-W., Qian X. (2020). The сurrency сomposition of international reserves, demand for international reserves and global safe assets. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 102, article 102120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102120Aizenman J., Cheung Y.-W., Qian X. (2020). The сurrency сomposition of international reserves, demand for international reserves and global safe assets. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 102, article 102120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102120Aizenman J., Lee J. (2007). International reserves: Precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence. Open Economies Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 191—214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-007-9030-zAizenman J., Lee J. (2007). International reserves: Precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence. Open Economies Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 191-214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-007-9030-zArslanalp S., Eichengreen B., Simpson-Bell C. (2022). The stealth erosion of dollar dominance: Active diversifiers and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/22/58. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400204746.001Arslanalp S., Eichengreen B., Simpson-Bell C. (2022). The stealth erosion of dollar dominance: Active diversifiers and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/22/58. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400204746.001Bar-Ilan A., Marion N. P. (2009). A macroeconomic perspective on reserve accumulation. Review of International Economics, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 802—823. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00846.xBar-Ilan A., Marion N. P. (2009). A macroeconomic perspective on reserve accumulation. Review of International Economics, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 802-823. https:// https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00846.xCarney M. (2019). The growing challenges for monetary policy in the current international monetary and financial system. Speech at “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 23.Carney M. (2019). The growing challenges for monetary policy in the current international monetary and financial system. Speech at “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 23.Cheung Y.-W., Ito H. (2008). Hoarding of international reserves: A comparison of the Asian and Latin American experiences. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) Research Paper, No. 07/2008. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1160924Cheung Y.-W., Ito H. (2008). Hoarding of international reserves: A comparison of the Asian and Latin American experiences. Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR) Research Paper, No. 07/2008. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1160924Cheung Y.-W., Qian X. (2009). Hoarding of international reserves: Mrs Machlup’s wardrobe and the Joneses. Review of International Economics, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 824—843. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00850.xCheung Y.-W., Qian X. (2009). Hoarding of international reserves: Mrs Machlup’s wardrobe and the Joneses. Review of International Economics, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 824-843. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00850.xCollins J.R., Schuster L., Greenham T. (2013). Energising money. An introduction to energy currencies and accounting. New Economics Foundation, February 27. https://neweconomics.org/2013/02/energising-moneyCollins J.R., Schuster L., Greenham T. (2013). Energising money. An introduction to energy currencies and accounting. New Economics Foundation, February 27. https://neweconomics.org/2013/02/energising-moneyDouthwaite R. (1999). The ecology of money. Devon: Green Books.Douthwaite R. (1999). The ecology of money. Devon: Green Books.Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2005). International financial stability: Asia, interest rates, and the dollar. New York: Deutsche Bank Securities.Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2005). International financial stability: Asia, interest rates, and the dollar. New York: Deutsche Bank Securities.Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2022). US sanctions reinforce the dollar’s dominance. NBER Working Paper, No. 29943. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29943 Eichengreen B., Mehl A., Chitu L. (2018). How global currencies work: Past, present and future. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Dooley M., Folkerts-Landau D., Garber P. (2022). US sanctions reinforce the dollar’s dominance. NBER Working Paper, No. 29943. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29943Eichengreen B. (2019). Two views of the international monetary system. Intereconomics, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 233—236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-019-0830-3Eichengreen B., Mehl A., Chitu L. (2018). How global currencies work: Past, present and future. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Frenkel J. A. (1974). The demand for international reserves by developed and less-developed countries. Economica, Vol. 41, No. 161, pp. 14—24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2553419Eichengreen B. (2019). Two views of the international monetary system. Intereconomics, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 233-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-019-0830-3Fukuda S., Kon Y. (2010). Macroeconomic impacts of foreign exchange reserve accumulation: Theory and international evidence. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 197.Frenkel J. A. (1974). The demand for international reserves by developed and less-developed countries. Economica, Vol. 41, No. 161, pp. 14-24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2553419Gopinath G., Stein J. (2021). Banking, trade, and the making of a dominant currency. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 136, No. 2, pp. 783—830. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa036Fukuda S., Kon Y. (2010). Macroeconomic impacts of foreign exchange reserve accumulation: Theory and international evidence. ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 197.Gourinchas P.-O., Rey H., Sauzet M. (2019). The international monetary and financial system. NBER Working Paper, No. 25782. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25782Gopinath G., Stein J. (2021). Banking, trade, and the making of a dominant currency. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 136, No. 2, pp. 783-830. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa036Gourinchas P.-O. (2022). Shifting geopolitical tectonic plates. Finance and Development, June, pp. 10—11.Gourinchas P.-O., Rey H., Sauzet M. (2019). The international monetary and financial system. NBER Working Paper, No. 25782. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25782Iancu A., Anderson G., Ando S., Boswell E., Gamba A., Hakobyan S., Lusinyan L., Meads N., Wu Y. (2020). Reserve currencies in an evolving international monetary system. IMF Departmental Paper, No. 20/02.Gourinchas P.-O. (2022). Shifting geopolitical tectonic plates. Finance and Development, June, pp. 10-11.Ilzetzki E., Reinhart C., Rogoff K. (2017). Exchange arrangements entering the 21st century: Which anchor will hold? NBER Working Paper, No. 23134. https://doi.org/10.3386/w23134Iancu A., Anderson G., Ando S., Boswell E., Gamba A., Hakobyan S., Lusinyan L., Meads N., Wu Y. (2020). Reserve currencies in an evolving international monetary system. IMF Departmental Paper, No. 20/02.IMF (2020). Digital money across borders: Macro-financial implications. IMF Policy Paper, No. 2020/050.Ilzetzki E., Reinhart C., Rogoff K. (2017). Exchange arrangements entering the 21st century: Which anchor will hold? NBER Working Paper, No. 23134. https://doi.org/10.3386/w23134Lietaer B. A. (2004). Complementary currencies in Japan today: History, originality and relevance. International Journal of Community Currency Research, Vol. 8, pp. 12—13.IMF (2020). Digital money across borders: Macro-financial implications. IMF Policy Paper, No. 2020/050.Ocampo J. A. (2010). Why should the global reserve system be reformedLietaer B. A. (2004). Complementary currencies in Japan today: History, originality and relevance. International Journal of Community Currency Research, Vol. 8, pp. 12-13.Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Briefing Paper, No. 1. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8445T9HOcampo J. A. (2010). Why should the global reserve system be reformedOdum H. T. (1995). Environmental аccounting: Emergy and environmental decision making. New York: Wiley.Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Briefing Paper, No. 1. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8445T9HPerks M., Rao Y., Tokuoka K. (2021). Evolution of bilateral swap lines. IMF Working Papers, No. 2021/210. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513590134.001Odum H. T. (1995). Environmental аccounting: Emergy and environmental decision making. New York: Wiley.Pettis M. (2013). The great rebalancing. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Rodrick D. (2006). The social cost of foreign exchange reserves. NBER Working Paper, No. 11952. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730600879331Perks M., Rao Y., Tokuoka K. (2021). Evolution of bilateral swap lines. IMF Working Papers, No. 2021/210. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513590134.001Scheubel B., Stracca L. (2019). What do we know about the global financial safety net? A new comprehensive data set. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 99, article 102058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.06.003Pettis M. (2013). The great rebalancing. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Rodrick D. (2006). The social cost of foreign exchange reserves. NBER Working Paper, No. 11952. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730600879331Steil B. (2013). The battle of Bretton Woods. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Scheubel B., Stracca L. (2019). What do we know about the global financial safety net? A new comprehensive data set. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 99, article 102058. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.06.003Swann R., Benello G. C., Turnbull S. (1997). Building sustainable communities: Tools and concepts for self-reliant economic change, 2nd ed. New York: Bootstrap Press.Steil B. (2013). The battle of Bretton Woods. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Vinokurov E., Levenkov A. (2021). The enlarged global financial safety net. Global Policy Journal, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 15—23. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12906Swann R., Benello G. C., Turnbull S. (1997). Building sustainable communities: Tools and concepts for self-reliant economic change, 2nd ed. New York: Bootstrap Press.Wang Y. (2014). The institutional supply of China’s participation in the international monetary system reform. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol. 7, pp. 287—305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-014-0016-0Vinokurov E., Levenkov A. (2021). The enlarged global financial safety net. Global Policy Journal, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 15-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12906Weisbrot M., Merling L. (2018). Argentina’s deal with the IMF: Will “expansionary austerity” work? Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research.Wang Y. (2014). The institutional supply of China’s participation in the international monetary system reform. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Vol. 7, pp. 287-305. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-014-0016-0Yongding Y. (2022). America has stopped playing by the monetary rules. Project Syndicate, April 27. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-freeze-russian-reserves-what-it-means-for-china-by-yu-yongding-2022-04Weisbrot M., Merling L. (2018). Argentina’s deal with the IMF: Will “expansionary austerity” work? Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research.Zhou X. (2009). Reform the international monetary system. Essay of Governor of the People’s Bank of China, March 23. https://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdfYongding Y. (2022). America has stopped playing by the monetary rules. Project Syndicate, April 27. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-freeze-russian-reserves-what-it-means-for-china-by-yu-yongding-2022-04Zhou X. (2009). Reform the international monetary system. Essay of Governor of the People’s Bank of China, March 23. https://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdfZhou X. (2009). Reform the international monetary system. Essay of Governor of the People’s Bank of China, March 23. https://www.bis.org/review/r090402c.pdf

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.