voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-72-97voprecotest-4059Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSЭффективность бюджетного правила стран-экспортёровEffectiveness of the stabilization fiscal rule for resource-rich countrieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8709-2758АндреевМ. Ю.AndreyevM. Y.

Андреев Михаил Юрьевич, кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент, главный экономист Банка России, старший научный сотрудник. лаборатории математического моделирования экономических процессов Института прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС; доцент кафедры высшей математики МФТИ

Москва

Mikhail Y. Andreyev

Moscow

m.andreyev@inbox.ruБанк России; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Московский физико-технический институт (национальный исследовательский университетРоссияBank of Russia; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University)Russian Federation2022021220220127297Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4059

В работе анализируется эффективность бюджетного правила странэкспортеров, заключающегося в сглаживании части бюджетных доходов от налогообложения продаж природных ресурсов, которая идет на финансирование текущих государственных расходов. Под эффективностью здесь понимается стабилизационная роль этого правила: снижение волатильности (контрцикличность) ключевых макроэкономических переменных в результате его принятия. Мы рассматриваем два типа предпосылок: относительно вида бюджетного правила и структуры экономики. В первом случае учитываются несовершенства, наблюдаемые при действии механизма сглаживания доходов; во втором — длительность контрактов, степень закрытости счета финансовых операций, структура государственного спроса, потребительские привычки и доля рикардианских домохозяйств. Построена динамическая стохастическая модель малой открытой экономики, зависящей от экспорта ресурсов. В работе проанализированы предпосылки, при которых различные модификации бюджетного правила снижают эффективность по отношению к инфляции, выпуску и валютному курсу. Подчеркнута важность корректной идентификации механизмов действия бюджетного правила и точности количественной оценки специфических для страны параметров экономики.

Сделан вывод относительно эффективности будущего бюджетного правила в России в условиях отсутствия внешнего фонда благосостояния и закрытого счета финансовых операций.

This paper explores the efficacy of the fiscal rule enacted by regulators in exporting countries, which implies the smoothing of tax revenue from the sale of natural resources. Under “efficacy” we understand its stabilization effect that is lowering volatility (countercyclicality) of key macroeconomic variables following its imposition. The approach to the operation of the fiscal rule is based on two types of assumptions: those about the type of the fiscal rule and about the structure of the economy. The first ones take into account imperfections in the workings of the revenue smoothing mechanism; the second relate to the duration of price and wage contracts, the cost of investing in foreign assets, government demand structures, household habits and the share of Ricardian households. We use a DSGE model of a small open economy with a strong reliance on commodity exports. The paper analyzes the assumptions under which various modifications of the fiscal rule lose their efficiency in relation to inflation, output and the exchange rate. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate identifying of fiscal rule workings, as well as the need for correct measurement of economic indicators in order to determine the nature of the fiscal rule effect related to revenue smoothing. The conclusion is made regarding the effectiveness of the future fiscal rule in Russia in the absence of an external wealth fund and a closed financial account. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.