voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2023-3-63-82voprecotest-4048Research ArticleФИНАНСОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАFINANCIAL ECONOMICSИпотечное кредитование и цены на жилье: необоснованные обвинения?Mortgage lending and housing prices in Russia: Unfounded accusations?https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4091-4881МишураА. В.MishuraA. V.

Мишура Анна Владимировна, доктор экономических наук; доцент экономического факультета НГУ; старший научный сотрудник ИЭОПП СО РАН

Новосибирск

Anna V. Mishura

Novosibirsk

anna.mishura@gmail.comНовосибирский национальный исследовательский государственный университет; Институт экономики и организации промышленного производства СО РАНРоссияNovosibirsk State University; Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering; Siberian Brunch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202303032023036382Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20232023Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/4048

В статье проанализирована взаимосвязь цены квадратного метра жилья и объема жилищного кредитования в России в 2009—2021 гг. Действительно ли развитие рынка ипотечного кредитования в последние годы стимулировало рост цен на жилье; как часто утверждают? С использованием данных Росстата и ЦБ РФ о ценах на жилье и объеме жилищного кредитования по России в целом; а также в региональном разрезе; оценена значимость взаимного влияния их поквартальных и годовых изменений методами векторной авторегрессии и панельной векторной авторегрессии с учетом экзогенных переменных. Выявлено; что динамика ипотечного кредитования не была существенным и стабильным фактором роста цен на жилье. Стоимость квадратного метра в большей мере зависела от платежеспособного спроса населения;  макроэкономических  условий;  состояния  экономики  регионов и динамики величины жилищного фонда.

The article analyzes the relationship between the price of housing and the volume of issued housing loans in Russia in 2009—2021. Has the development of the mort- gage lending market in recent years driven up housing prices; as has often been claimed? Using data from Rosstat and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on average housing prices and lending volumes in Russia as a whole; as well as in Russian regions; the significance of mutual influence of their quarterly and annual changes is estimated using vector autoregression and panel vector autoregression models; taking into account exogenous variables. It has been found that mortgage lending dynamics was not a significant and stable factor in the growth of housing prices. The latter largely depended on the households’ solvent demand; macroeco- nomic conditions; the state of regional economy; and dynamics of the housing stock.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.