voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-69-91voprecotest-402Research ArticleФИНАНСОВЫЙ СЕКТОР В ЭКОНОМИКЕFINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE ECONOMYФинансы домохозяйств в России: шоки дохода и сглаживание потребленияConsumer finance in Russia: Income shocks and consumption smoothingМамедлиМ. О.MamedliM. O.

главный экономист Департамента исследований и прогнозирования Банка России, младший научный сотрудник Научно-учебной лаборатории макроэкономического анализа Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» (Москва)

MamedliMO@cbr.ruСиняковА. А.SinyakovA. A.

заместитель директора Департамента исследований и прогнозирования Банка России (Москва)

SinyakovAA@cbr.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияBank of RussiaRussian FederationБанк РоссииРоссияBank of RussiaRussian Federation201820052018056991Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/402

На основе новой для России базы данных в статье исследуется способность домохозяйств сглаживать потребление в кризис 2014 г., а также роль в сглаживании потребления стратегий, основанных на увеличении долговой нагрузки или расходовании сбережений. Результаты двух процедур идентификации шоков дохода указывают на способность домохозяйств сгладить около 50% шока дохода. Сглаживание оказалось ниже для сельских жителей, домохозяйств, подошедших к кризису с более высоким уровнем долга и имевших низкие доходы. Российские домохозяйства оказались не склонны тратить накопленные сбережения или увеличивать кредитную нагрузку в ответ на изменение их доходов, за исключением домохозяйств, имевших в момент кризиса 2014 г. более высокий уровень долга. Результаты могут использоваться при разработке политики Банка России.

On the basis of the Russian Survey of Household Finance, we investigate the consumption behavior of Russian households, who faced a negative income shock at the end of 2014. We also analyze the role of crisis-adjusting consumption strategies based on the instruments of financial market, namely an increase in the stock of debt or decrease in liquid and non-liquid assets. Results based on two identification procedures of income shocks show that Russian households were able to smooth around 50% of their income shock. The ability to smooth consumption is lower for those living in rural areas, households with higher levels of debt accumulated before 2014 and those with lower income. Overall, Russian households are not used to spend savings or increase their debt in response to the income changes with the exception of those who already had a higher level of debt by 2014. The results may have important implications for the Bank of Russia policy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.