voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-49-68voprecotest-401Research ArticleФИНАНСОВЫЙ СЕКТОР В ЭКОНОМИКЕFINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE ECONOMYСкрытые «дыры» в капитале банков и предложение кредитов реальному сектору экономикиHidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economyМамоновМ. Е.MamonovM. E.

к. э. н., н. с. Центра макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП) Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН (Москва)

mmamonov@forecast.ruИнститут народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАНРоссияCenter for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting, RASRussian Federation201820052018054968Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/401

В статье показано, что наличие скрытых «дыр» в капитале функционирующих банков, оказывая распределенное во времени давление на фактические остатки их собственных средств, приводит не к сокращению кредитования, а к изменению срочности кредитов. Долгосрочные кредиты сокращаются, а краткосрочные растут, причем примерно на одинаковую величину. Чем больше срок, тем выше кредитный риск и тем больше банки вынуждены начислять резервы на потери, создавая дополнительное давление на капитал. У банков, которые прячут «дыры» в капитале, но еще не столкнулись с отзывом лицензии, сильнее стимулы к сокращению срочности выдаваемых кредитов: это, с одной стороны, повышает оборачиваемость резервов на потери и способствует более гибкому управлению капиталом, а с другой - позволяет быстрее выводить привлеченные средства вкладчиков с помощью кредитов связанным с банком сторонам в российской или зарубежных юрисдикциях. Это увеличивает потенциальный размер обнаруживаемой ex post «дыры» в капитале банка. Можно предположить, что не любой кредит - благо для экономики: избыток краткосрочных и недостаток долгосрочных кредитов могут быть источниками потерь общества.

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.