voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-5-24voprecotest-399Research ArticleФИНАНСОВЫЙ СЕКТОР В ЭКОНОМИКЕFINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE ECONOMYОпределение модели российского финансового сектора на основе межстранового анализаA cross-country comparative analysis of the Russian financial sector modelСтолбовМ. И.StolbovM. I.

д. э. н., проф. РАН, завкафедрой прикладной экономики Московского государственного института международных отношений МИД России (Москва)

stolbov_mi@mail.ruГолощаповаИ. О.GoloshchapovaI. O.

руководитель направления «Макроэкономический анализ» X5 Retail Group, аспирант экономического факультета МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова, ведущий эксперт Центра макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП) (Москва)

IGoloshchapova@forecast.ruСолнцевО. Г.SolntsevO. G.

к. э. н., руководитель направления анализа денежно-кредитной политики и банковской системы ЦМАКП, завлабораторией Института народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН (ИНП РАН), ведущий научный сотрудник Центра фундаментальных исследований (ЦФИ) Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики» (НИУ ВШЭ; Москва)

OSolntsev@forecast.ruАхметовР. Р.AkhmetovR. R.

эксперт ЦМАКП, м. н. с. ИНП РАН, стажер-исследователь ЦФИ НИУ ВШЭ (Москва)

RAhmetov@forecast.ruПанковаВ. А.PankovaV. A.

эксперт ЦМАКП, м.  н.  с. ИНП РАН, стажер-исследователь ЦФИ НИУ ВШЭ (Москва)

VPankova@forecast.ruЦепиловаЕ. А.TsepilovaE. A.

эксперт ЦМАКП, инженер ИНП РАН, стажер-­исследователь ЦФИ НИУ ВШЭ (Москва)

ECepilova@forecast.ruМосковский государственный институт международных отношений МИД РоссииРоссияMoscow State Institute of International RelationsRussian FederationX5 Retail Group; МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова; Центр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП)РоссияX5 Retail Group; Lomonosov Moscow State University; The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term ForecastingRussian FederationЦентр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования (ЦМАКП); Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН (ИНП РАН); Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики» (НИУ ВШЭ)РоссияThe Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting, RAS; National Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation20182005201805524Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/399

В работе с помощью межстранового анализа выявлены различные модели финансового сектора, характеризующие специфику взаимосвязи показателей его размера, структуры, эффективности, стабильности, инклюзивности и институционального качества. На этой базе идентифицирована модель российского финансового сектора. Основным инструментом выявления моделей финансового сектора стала кластеризация, реализованная на широкой выборке стран с помощью EM-алгоритма с байесовским расширением. Проведенный анализ позволил сформулировать рекомендации в отношении целевых долгосрочных показателей развития финансового сектора России с учетом возможностей его перехода к модели более высокого уровня.

In this paper, based on a cross-country analysis, the authors distil different models of the financial sector, which are characterized by peculiar interrelations among size, structure, efficiency, stability, inclusion and the institutional quality of financial development. Against this backdrop, the model of the Russian financial sector is described. To identify the financial sector models, cluster analysis involving the EM algorithm with a Bayesian extension is performed on a vast sample of countries. The analysis allows setting key long-term indicators of the Russian financial sector development, taking into consideration its potential of transition to the cluster of more financially advanced economies.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.