voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2018-4-26-48voprecotest-392Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSАнализ экспертных и официальных прогнозов цен на нефтьAnalysis of expert and official oil price forecastsГурвичЕ. Т.GurvichE. T.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель Экономической экспертной группы (ЭЭГ), руководитель Центра бюджетного анализа и прогнозирования Научно-исследовательского финансового института (НИФИ) Министерства финансов РФ (Москва)

egurvich@eeg.ruПрилепскийИ. В.PrilepskiyI. V.

к. физ.-мат. н., руководитель направления «Международная экономика» ЭЭГ, старший научный сотрудник НИФИ (Москва)

iprilepskiy@eeg.ruЭкономическая экспертная группа (ЭЭГ); Научно-исследовательский финансовый институт (НИФИ) Министерства финансов РФРоссияEconomic Expert Group; Financial Research InstituteRussian Federation201820042018042648Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20182018Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/392

В работе изучаются факторы формирования прогнозов цен на нефть ведущих экспертных и официальных организаций. Показано, что прогнозы всех организаций учитывают как фундаментальные факторы нефтяного рынка, так и текущую конъюнктуру, но придают им разную значимость. Выявлена нелинейная зависимость точности прогнозов от горизонта: наибольшую ошибку имеют прогнозы на 6-8 лет, что можно объяснить противоречием между линейным характером прогнозов и циклической динамикой цен на нефть, наблюдаемой в течение последнего полувека. Продемонстрировано, что на кратко- и среднесрочном горизонтах прогнозы Минэкономразвития занимают медианное положение по точности, а лидирует здесь Американское энергетическое агентство.

The article studies the factors affecting formation of oil price forecasts by leading expert and official organizations (International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, World Bank, OPEC, RF Ministry of Economic Development). It is demonstrated that all these forecasts take into account both oil market fundamentals and the current conjuncture, but the significance of these factors differs by agency. Non-linear dependence between forecast accuracy and horizon length is identified. The error is greatest for the projections 6 to 8 years ahead, which may be explained by the mismatch between the linear nature of the forecasts and the actual cyclical oil price dynamics during the last 50 years. Accuracy of short- to medium-term projections by the Ministry of Economic Development is shown to hold a median position among forecasting agencies, with the leading position held by the US Energy Information Administration.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.