voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-5-51-78voprecotest-3866Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSПрогнозы развития энергетики мира 30 лет спустя: проверка прошлым уроков будущегоProjections of the global energy system evolution 30 years later: Checking the lessons of the future by the past experiencehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2842-166XБашмаковИ. А.BashmakovI. A.

Башмаков Игорь Алексеевич, д. э. н., генеральный директор

Москва

Igor A. Bashmakov

Moscow

bashmako@co.ruЦентр энергоэффективности - XXI векРоссияCenter for Energy Efficiency-XXIRussian Federation202215052022055178Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3866

В статье представлены результаты сравнения сделанных автором в начале 1990-х годов прогнозных оценок развития энергетики мира до 2020 г. с фактическими данными. Такое исследование — редкий и поэтому интересный случай. Обычно публикуется прогноз на десятилетия вперед, но потом его никто не сравнивает с фактами. Задача долгосрочных сценарных прогнозов — очертить пространство возможных состояний прогнозируемой системы и на этой основе сформировать предложения по мерам политики. Вопрос о том, насколько можно верить прогнозам, всегда задают себе их «потребители» (лица, принимающие решения, и эксперты), но редко получают на него внятный ответ. В статье показано, что с помощью хорошо структурированных моделей и схем анализа результатов расчетов уроки будущего учить можно.

This article compares the author’s projections of the global energy system evolution up to 2020 as made in the early 1990s, against the actual data. This type of analysis is a rare and therefore an interesting case. Typically, after pro­jections for decades ahead have been published, no one bothers to compare them with the reality. Long-term projections are expected to outline possible states of the explored systems and to develop policy recommendations. The question of whether such projections can be trusted is always in minds of the projections’ “consumers” (decision-makers and experts), but very rarely a clear answer is provided. This paper fills this gap and shows that the “lessons of the future” can be learned based on well-structured models and analytical schemes.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.