voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-1-90-109voprecotest-3811Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSУглеродное регулирование в ЕС и российский сырьевой экспортCBAM and Russian exporthttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2842-166XБашмаковИ. А.BashmakovI. A.

Башмаков Игорь Алексеевич, д. э. н., генеральный директор

Москва

Igor A. Bashmakov

Moscow

bashmako@co.ruЦентр энергоэффективности - XXI векРоссияCenter for Energy Efficiency - XXIRussian Federation2022130120220190109Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3811

В 2026 г. ЕС вводит механизм трансграничного углеродного регулирования (Сarbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, СВАМ). Опубликованные оценки возможных потерь от его введения для России оказались существенно завышенными, статичными, не имеющими прямого отношения к изменению доходов российских экспортеров. Цель данной работы — оценить возможные последствия внедрения объявленного ЕС проекта конструкции СВАМ для российского экспорта сырьевых товаров. СВАМ запускает процесс снижения углеродоемкости промышленной продукции, его аутсайдеры теряют доходы за счет сокращения их рыночных ниш. При замораживании углеродоемкости российский экспорт СВАМ-товаров постепенно сжимается, и потери доходов, малые сначала, постепенно могут превратиться в большие. Однако при активной политике стимулирования снижения выбросов ПГ в российской промышленности потерь можно избежать и даже получить дополнительные экспортные доходы.

The EU is expected to introduce the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026. The estimates of the resulting Russia’s economic loss, that can be found in the literature, appear to be blown up, static, and not directly related to the change in the incomes of Russian exporters. These estimates are driven by the authors’ speculations, rather than by the CBAM concept as announced by the EU. This paper aims to assess the potential implications of CBAM for the Russian raw materials exports. CBAM will launch a carbon intensity reduction race for industrial products. Those who will not be able to keep abreast of the leaders will be losing their market niches. Because Russia is freezing its current carbon intensity levels, it will see its CBAM exports shrink and, small at the beginning, export incomes reduction may gradually become substantial. At the same time, proactive GHG emission control in the industrial sector can help avoid the loss and even yield additional income.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.