voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-12-21-47voprecotest-3761Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSРаспределенное производство в условиях шока пандемии: уязвимость, резильентность и новый этап глобализацииDistributed production under the pandemic shock: Vulnerability, resilience and the new stage of globalizationhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4741-9197СмородинскаяН. В.SmorodinskayaN. V.

Смородинская Наталия Вадимовна, к. э. н., вед.  н.  с.

Москва

Nataliya V. Smorodinskaya

Moscow

smorodinskaya@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3839-5979КатуковД. Д.KatukovD. D.

Катуков Даниил Дмитриевич, н. с. 

Москва

Daniel D. Katukov

Moscow

dkatukov@gmail.comИнститут экономики РАНРоссияInstitute of Economics, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2021081220210122147Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3761

В статье привлечено внимание к новой волне публичных и научных споров о судьбе глобализации и целесообразности дальнейшего участия стран в распределенном производстве (в глобальных стоимостных цепочках и торговле добавленной стоимостью), возникшей при шоке пандемии COVID-19 в связи с кризисными сбоями по каналам экспортно-импортных поставок. Мы анализируем факторы уязвимости глобальных стоимостных цепочек (ГСЦ) при внезапных шоках, влияние этих зависимостей на эскалацию и уникальные черты глобальной рецессии 2020 г., а также постпандемические стратегии ведущих МНК в области укрепления резильентности ГСЦ. Показано, что даже при подрыве системы поставок «точно в срок» и критической зависимости многих национальных отраслей от импорта из Китая шок пандемии не пошатнул основ распределенного производства и не привел к массовому решорингу. Напротив, практика и эконометрические расчеты подтверждают, что преимущества участия стран в ГСЦ перевешивают риски попасть под волновой эффект распространения шоков. Более того, резильентные стратегии МНК, систематизированные по трем взаимосвязанным направлениям (реструктуризация сети поставщиков ГСЦ, производственная оптимизация в ГСЦ и их цифровизация), придают глобализации новый импульс. Обозначен ряд перспективных экспортных возможностей, которые объективно открываются в 2020-е годы для развивающихся стран, включая Россию. Проанализированы свойства резильентных систем (робастность, гибкость, ресурсная избыточность), новые понятия, характерные для условий неопределенности (дизрупционные риски, волновой эффект сбоев и др.), и новые управленческие подходы, актуальные в этих условиях для всех типов экономики и бизнеса.

The paper draws attention to a new wave of public and academic debate on the future of globalization and on rationality of countries’ further participation in distributed production, i.e., their involvement in global value chains (GVCs) and value-added trade. Raised during the COVID-19 pandemic shock, this debate is the reaction of countries to the global diffusion of downfalls through transborder supplies. We analyze vulnerabilities of GVCs to sudden shocks, demonstrate the role of these risks in escalating the 2020 global recession and in shaping its unique features, as well as scrutinize the emerging post-pandemic strategies of leading MNEs for enhancing the GVC resilience. We argue that despite the collapse of the just-in-time supply system and the crucial dependency of many domestic industries on imports from China, the pandemic shock could neither undermine foundations of distributed production nor lead to mass reshoring. On the contrary, both analyzed practice and surveyed econometric literature confirm that benefits of countries’ participation in GVCs outweigh risks of their falling under potential rippling disruptions. Moreover, MNEs’ resilience strategies, which we classified into three interrelated lines of action (restructuring of GVCs’ supplier networks, production optimization, and GVCs’ digital transformation), give globalization a new impetus. We conclude with describing the changing features of distributed production under the ongoing GVCs’ restructuring and outline a number of promising export opportunities that objectively open up in the 2020s for developing economies, including Russia. In the course of our study, we examine key properties of resilient systems (robustness, flexibility, redundancy), some new notions (disruption risks, ripple effect, etc.), and new management approaches relevant for all types of economies and businesses under increased uncertainty.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.