voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-7-68-84voprecotest-3673Research ArticleМИКРОЭКОНОМИКАMICROECONOMICSОценка влияния уголовного преследования предпринимателей на развитие малого и среднего бизнеса в РоссииAssessing the impact of criminal prosecution of entrepreneurs on small and medium-sized enterprises in Russiahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3913-5506ЮдинИ. Б.IudinI. B.

Юдин Иван Борисович, стажер-исследователь Центра статистики и мониторинга науки и инноваций Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний

Москва

Ivan B. Iudin

Moscow

iyudin@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6487-9371ПоросенковГ. А.PorosenkovG. A.

Поросенков Геннадий Андреевич, эксперт проектно-учебной лаборатории антикоррупционной политики

Москва

Gennadii A. Porosenkov

Moscow

gporosenkov@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation202202072022076884Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3673

Значительная часть предпринимателей, как и населения в целом, называют возможность необоснованного уголовного преследования одной из основных проблем, препятствующих ведению бизнеса в России. Тем не менее подобному преследованию подвергается лишь небольшая доля предпринимателей. В рамках этого исследования предпринята попытка эмпирически проверить гипотезу о негативном влиянии необоснованного уголовного преследования на предпринимательскую активность. Сначала рассматривается механизм преследования предпринимателей, затем при помощи регрессионного анализа со смешанными эффектами по панельным данным за 2017—2021 гг. проводится оценка его влияния на темпы роста числа малых и средних предприятий (МСП). В качестве индикатора необоснованного уголовного преследования используется число обращений, рассмотренных Центром общественных процедур «Бизнес против коррупции» (ЦОП «БПК»). Результаты показывают, что каждое дополнительно рассмотренное дело снижает темп роста числа МСП в среднесрочной перспективе. Выявленная зависимость объясняется при помощи теории сигналов: обращения в ЦОП «БПК» выступают для предпринимателей индикатором наличия необоснованного преследования. При сохранении этой проблемы стоит ожидать снижения темпов роста фирм и увеличения их доли в теневой экономике.

A significant proportion of entrepreneurs as well as Russian population in general consider the possibility of criminal prosecution to be one of the main problems that hinders business development in Russia. However, only a small proportion of entrepreneurs are subjected to this type of prosecution. The current study attempts to empirically test the hypothesis about the negative impact of unjustified criminal prosecution on entrepreneurial activity. First, we examine the mechanism of unjustified criminal prosecution of entrepreneurs and then using mixed effects regression modelling on panel data for 2017—2021 assess its impact on the growth rate of the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The number of appeals reviewed by the Center for Public Procedures “Business against corruption” (CPP “BAC”) is used as an indicator of unjustified criminal prosecution. The results show that each additionally handled appeal reduces the rate of growth in the number of SMEs in the medium term. This relationship is explained via the theory of signals: appeals to the CPP “BAC” serve as indicators of unjustified prosecution problem for entrepreneurs. If this problem persists, a decrease in the growth rates of firms, and an increase in their number in the shadow economy can also be expected.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.