voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-1-110-125voprecotest-3604Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICSВлияние «зеленого» курса на импорт меди из России в ЕСImpact of the Green Deal on copper imports from Russia to the EUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2262-5605ЧупинаД. А.ChupinaD. A.

Чупина Дарья Анатольевна, к. э. н., с. н. с. Центра региональных компаративных исследований

Екатеринбург

Daria A. Chupina

Ekaterinburg

daria.chupina@gmail.comИнститут экономики Уральского отделения РАНРоссияInstitute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation20221101202201110125Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3604

Анализируются перспективы импорта меди из России в ЕС в условиях реализации плана по декарбонизации экономики ЕС к 2050 г. Отмечено, что зеленая экономика более металлоемка, однако в среднесрочной перспективе существенное влияние традиционных драйверов (рост населения и благосостояния) на конъюнктуру мирового рынка меди будет сохраняться. Показаны сходные тенденции на рынке меди ЕС: в текущем десятилетии быстрый относительный рост зеленых секторов экономики и спроса на медь с их стороны не приведет к фундаментальным изменениям динамики и структуры рынка. Введение трансграничного углеродного корректирующего механизма (CBAM) может нарушить устойчивость сложившейся бизнес-модели в европейской медной промышленности. Представлены сценарии финансовой нагрузки от введения CBAM для импорта меди из России в ЕС, показывающие, что новый внешнеторговый инструмент ЕС не воспрепятствует ввозу российской меди. Однако наращиванию поставок меди из РФ на растущий рынок ЕС может препятствовать географическая удаленность новых проектов по добыче и переработке меди.

The article analyzes the prospects for copper imports from the Russian Federation to the EU in the context of the implementation of the plan for decarbonization of the EU economy by 2050. It is noted that green economy is more metal-intensive, but in the medium-run, the impact of the traditional drivers (population growth and rising welfare) on the global copper market will remain significant. Similar trends are shown in the EU copper market: in the current decade, the rapid relative growth of the green sectors of the economy and the demand for copper from them will not lead to fundamental changes in the dynamics and structure of the market. At the same time, the introduction of a cross-border carbon adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could disrupt the sustainability of the established business model in the European copper industry. Eight scenarios of the financial burden for copper imports from the Russian Federation to the EU after the introduction of CBAM are presented, showing that the new EU foreign trade instrument will not have a restrictive effect on copper imports from the Russian Federation. However, the increase in the supply of Russian copper to the growing EU market may be constrained by the geographic remoteness of new copper mining and refining facilities.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.