voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-6-32-46voprecotest-3565Research ArticleДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMONETARY POLICYПрозрачность монетарной политики и эффект переноса валютного курсаThe transparency of monetary policy and the effect of exchange rate pass-throughhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-3776КартаевФ. С.KartaevPh. S.

Картаев Филипп Сергеевич, д. э. н., вед. н. с. Института международных исследований (ИМИ) МГИМО, завкафедрой математических методов анализа экономики экономического факультета МГУ

Москва

Moscow

kartaev@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4545-9926ТубденовВ. Г.TubdenovV. G.

Тубденов Виталий Германович, эксперт ИМИ МГИМО, студент экономического факультета МГУ

Москва

Moscow

tvitg13@gmail.comМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) МИД России; Московский государственный университет имени М. В. ЛомоносоваРоссияMGIMO University; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202109062021063246Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3565

Исследуется влияние изменения прозрачности монетарной политики на эффект переноса валютного курса в потребительские цены. На основе эконометрического моделирования межстрановых панельных данных показано, что повышение прозрачности коммуникации между центральным банком и населением приводит к снижению эластичности внутренних цен по валютному курсу в странах, таргетирующих инфляцию и придерживающихся других режимов монетарной политики. Эффект наблюдается как для развитых, так и для развивающихся экономик, он более сильный во втором случае. Полученный результат можно интерпретировать как аргумент в пользу целесообразности перехода Банка России от словесного описания своих будущих действий к публикации количественного прогноза траектории процентной ставки.

The work is devoted to the study of the influence of changes in the transparencyof monetary policy on the effect of exchange rate pass-through in consumer prices. Based on econometric modeling of cross-country panel data, it is shown that an increase in the transparency of communication between the central bank and the population leads to a decrease in the elasticity of domestic prices with respect to the exchange rate in countries that target inflation and adhere to other monetary policy regimes. The effect is observed for both developed and developing economies; it is stronger in the second case. The obtained result can be interpreted as an argument in favor of the advisability of the Bank of Russia transition from a verbal description of its future actions to the publication of a quantitative forecast of the interest rate trajectory.

инфляционное таргетированиевалютный курсэффект переносаденежно-кредитная политикамонетарная политикаinflation targetingexchange ratepass-through effectmonetarypolicyСтатья подготовлена при финансовой поддержке МГИМО в рамках проекта № 1921‑01‑08.ReferencesБанк России (2020). Основные направления единой государственной денежно-кредитной политики на 2021 год и период 2022 и 2023 годов. Москва.Банк России (2020). Основные направления единой государственной денежно-кредитной политики на 2021 год и период 2022 и 2023 годов. Москва.Картаев Ф. (2017). Полезно ли инфляционное таргетирование для экономического роста? // Вопросы экономики. № 2. С. 62—74.Картаев Ф. (2017). Полезно ли инфляционное таргетирование для экономического роста? // Вопросы экономики. № 2. С. 62—74.Картаев Ф. С., Якимова Ю. И. (2018). Влияние инфляционного таргетирования на эффект переноса валютного курса // Вопросы экономики. № 11. С. 70—84.Картаев Ф. С., Якимова Ю. И. (2018). 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.