voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2021-12-48-65voprecotest-3519Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSТраектории структурной трансформации: опыт успешных стран-экспортеровStructural transformation trajectories: Evidence from successful exporting countrieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0678-8324ГнидченкоА. А.GnidchenkoA. A.

Гнидченко Андрей Андреевич, к. э. н., с. н. с.; ведущий эксперт; с. н. с. 

Москва

Andrei А. Gnidchenko

Moscow

agnidchenko@forecast.ruИнститут народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН; Центр макроэкономического анализа и краткосрочного прогнозирования; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияInstitute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences; Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; HSE UniversityRussian Federation2021081220210124865Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20212021Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3519

В статье выявляются и исследуются критерии успешности структурной трансформации экспорта как с использованием метода анализа кейсов, так и – впервые в научной литературе по общественным наукам – на основании расчета расстояний Фреше между траекториями структурной трансформации по различным критериям. Используется понятие траектории структурной трансформации как пути в координатах среднедушевого ВВП и одного из критериев успешности структурной трансформации. На основании анализа научных работ для эмпирического исследования отбирается четыре критерия – увеличение соотношения экспорта капитальных и потребительских благ, рост доли высокотехнологичных товаров в экспорте, снижение концентрации экспорта и усложнение его товарной структуры. В значительном количестве случаев страны-лидеры структурной трансформации добиваются успеха за счет ограниченного числа специфических факторов, таких как иностранные инвестиции в нишевых секторах, участие в сборке телекоммуникационной продукции, автомобилей или подобных товаров массового спроса, реэкспорт товаров из других стран. Однако высокие темпы роста среднедушевого ВВП обычно наблюдаются в странах с высокой связностью критериев успешности структурной трансформации, или прогрессом по всему комплексу критериев.

This paper identifies and examines several success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Some detailed facts for the leading countries in structural transformation are presented, and the paper is the first in social sciences literature to calculate the Fréchet distances between the structural transformation trajectories according to various criteria. The paper introduces the concept of structural transformation trajectory that is defined as the path in the two coordinates — per capita income and one of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Based on the brief review of the literature, four criteria for the empirical research are selected: (i) an increase in the ratio of exports of capital to consumer products, (ii) an enhancement of the export share of high-tech products, (iii) a decrease in export concentration, and (iv) an expansion of export complexity. In most cases, countries leading structural transformation succeed due to a limited number of specific factors, such as foreign direct investment in a limited number of sectors, participation in the assembly of telecom products, automobiles or similar consumer products, and re-export of products from other countries. However, high per capita income growth rates are typically observed in countries with high coherence of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports, that is, in countries that made progress on a whole range of criteria.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.