voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2022-7-5-26voprecotest-3503Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ОБЩЕСТВЕННОГО СЕКТОРАPUBLIC ECONOMICSФискальная консолидация в условиях пандемииFiscal consolidation during the pandemichttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2945-5271ЗубаревА. В.ZubarevA. V.

Зубарев Андрей Витальевич, к. э. н., с. н. с. Лаборатории математического моделирования экономических процессов Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ). SPIN: 4301, ResearcherID: G-5573-2015

Москва

Andrey V. Zubarev

Moscow

texxik@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5560-6611НестероваК. В.NesterovaK. V.

Нестерова Кристина Владимировна, с. н. с. Лаборатории математического моделирования экономических процессов ИПЭИ. SPIN: 6205-5679

Москва

Kristina V. Nesterova

Moscow

nesterovakv@ranepa.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation20220207202207526Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20222022Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/3503

Многие страны в 2019—2020 гг. для преодоления негативных последствий пандемии COVID-2019 увеличили государственные расходы за счет долга. В связи с этим становится актуальным анализ потерь и выгод фискальной консолидации, направленной на постепенное снижение государственного долга до предпандемийного уровня посредством повышения налогов. Примененная глобальная мультирегиональная модель общего равновесия с перекрывающимися поколениями (CGE-OLG) позволяет оценить краткосрочные и долгосрочные эффекты постпандемийной локальной и глобальной фискальной консолидации для регионов различного типа. В краткосрочном периоде локальная консолидация приводит к несущественным потерям в терминах выпуска в российской экономике и к более существенным потерям в развитых странах, бюджетные расходы которых во время пандемии были значительно выше. В долгосрочном периоде наблюдается положительное влияние фискальной консолидации на уровень выпуска во всех экономиках. Глобальная консолидация приводит к более высоким значениям выпуска по сравнению с локальной консолидацией. Результаты оценки эффектов постпандемийной локальной фискальной консолидации применимы к кризисной ситуации 2022 г. в российской экономике: небольшие потери в среднесрочной перспективе в период консолидации и некоторый выигрыш после нее.

In connection with the increase in public debt induced by the growth of government expenditures aimed at reducing negative effects of the global pandemic, the analysis of such policy measures as fiscal consolidation is an urgent issue. In this paper, we analyze gains and losses of fiscal consolidation aimed at gradually reducing government debt to pre-pandemic levels by raising taxes. Within the framework of the global multi-regional general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (CGE-OLG), we consider scenarios of local (single region) and global consolidation. As a result, we have found that local consolidation leads to insignificant losses in terms of output in the Russian economy in the short term and to more significant losses in developed countries, whose budgetary expenditures were significantly higher during the pandemic. In the long run, there is a positive effect on the level of output in all economies. Another important result is the additional positive effect of global consolidation giving higher output values compared to local consolidation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.