voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2017-10-5-26voprecotest-347Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯMACROECONOMIC RESEARCHБюджетная политика как источник экономического ростаFiscal policy as a source of economic growthКудринА. Л.KudrinA.

к.  э.  н., проф. Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета, председатель Совета фонда «Центр стратегических разработок» (ЦСР) (Москва)

noemail@neicon.ruКнобельА. Ю.KnobelA.

к.  э.  н., директор Центра исследований международной торговли РАНХиГС, завлабораторией международной торговли Института экономической политики имени Е.  Т. Гайдара (Москва)

knobel@iep.ruСанкт-Петербургский государственный университет ; Фонд «Центр стратегических разработок» (ЦСР)РоссияSt. Petersburg State University; Fund “Center for Strategic Research”Russian FederationРАНХиГС; Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. ГайдараРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic PolicyRussian Federation201720102017010526Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20172017Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/347

В работе исследуются механизмы влияния структуры государственных расходов на экономическое развитие. Оцениваются мультипликаторы расходов бюджета расширенного правительства по различным функциональным направлениям. Показано, что производительные расходы в целом имеют больший мультипликативный эффект на ВВП, чем непроизводительные. С помощью оценки моделей мультипликативных эффектов различных функциональных направлений рассчитаны потенциальное влияние на экономический рост в результате бюджетного маневра в пользу производительных расходов и реализовавшийся эффект от изменения структуры бюджетных расходов в последние годы. Показано, что перераспределение ресурсов от непроизводительных расходов к производительным могло бы повысить долгосрочные темпы экономического роста примерно на 0,8 п. п. в год. Напротив, наблюдавшееся с 2011 по 2017 г. изменение бюджетных расходов оказывало негативное влияние на среднегодовые темпы экономического роста порядка 0,3 п. п. в год.

We investigate mechanisms of budget expenditures structure influence on economic development. General government fiscal multiplier in various functional directions is estimated. We show that productive expenses in general have bigger multiplicative effect on GDP, than unproductive ones. By means of multiplicative effects models estimation for various functional items we calculate potential effect on economic growth of the budget maneuver in favor of productive expenses and the implemented effect of the recent years budget expenditures structure change. We show that resources redistribution from non-productive expenses to productive ones could increase long-term rates of economic growth approximately by 0,8 p. p. per year. On the contrary, the budget expenditures structure change observed during 2011-2017 has a negative impact on average annual rates of economic growth about 0,3 p. p. per year.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.